Week 3 Post Mortem
As gamblers it’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; the hours spent on conference calls, pouring over stats, and searching for angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately tthe active involvement process in a week doesn’t just stop when a game goes final meaning a win or loss gets tacked onto the balance sheet. Over the years I find myself spending more time combing through play by play for the games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. We often get caught in just wins and losses (it’s hard not to, can’t pay bills with losers) while the real merits of a bet actually goes much deeper. This takes on added importance as you look to identify opportunities moving forward. We all know the football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to lose site of the forest through the trees. History is doomed to repeat itself if you don’t learn from mistakes, blame my extensive financial background for this thought process. Before an event is dead and buried, an extensive post mortem is always required.
As a new weekly feature my goal is to take you through some of my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest. We’ll see how this week’s exercise goes and potentially tweak the format moving forward. Feel free to email me with questions, concerns, or life queries but I should admit dating advice isn’t really my forte.
Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating the closing line, winning the box score, staying inside (or outside as a fav) the number for the majority of the game, and requiring “turning point” plays all to go my way. Don’t worry, I’ll explain more as we dive into the exercise.
For more stats, lines, and trends visit www.oddshark.com
Contest line: REDSKINS +6.5
As soon as I knew RG3 would be sidelined for this game my initial instinct was to look at a Cousins led Skins side. For this game to set up correctly, my ideal scenario required an Eagles win on Monday Night Football against the Colts. Fortunately those factors broke the right away with the late comeback forcing books to make the Eagles -6.5. Immediately I knew this price was about 2 points too high given all the injuries on the Eagles offensive line.
Did the play beat closing line? Yes I took +6.5 whereas the game closed +3.5 at sharper books
Did the Redskins win the box score? Yes 511-379 with a 27-22 first down advantage
Did the Redskins stay inside the number all game? No, unfortunately they found themselves down double digits after a missed Kai Forbath field goal. When you need a backdoor, even in a game you dominated, there’s still an element of luck involved.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Yes…Division game and the Eagles off an exhausting Monday Nighter on a short week.
Final grade: B+…Result, Win
Contest line: GIANTS +2
When you have a chance to buy low on a NFL team this early in the season you have to jump at the opportunity. The general public wanted to avoid the G-Men at all costs given their sluggish 0-2 start. However a deeper dive revealed that losses to both the Lions and Cardinals, 2 elite defenses, was nothing to be discouraged by early in the year. If there was ever a time to back Eli and company it was against a beleaguered Texans team criss crossing the country with a 2-0 start under their belt. It also didn’t hurt that there had been rumblings of Arian Foster injuries all week long…
Did the Giants play beat closing line? Yes, I was able to grab the Giants +2 in a game I figured would close with them as the favorite
Did the Giants win the box score? Yes, they outgained Houston 419-411 and picked up 6 more first downs in the game. They also won the turnover battle 3-1 which is always a blessing but rarely predictive.
Did the Giants stay inside the number all game? Yes, despite an early fumble and missed chip shot field goal the Giants built a 14-0 halftime lead and never looked back. The Texans did trim the deficit to 17-10 with a few minutes left in the third but never had the ball with a chance to tie the entire 2nd half
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Yes…Houston wasn’t nearly as hungry for a non-conference win as the Giants were desperate given an 0-2 start. This was it for the G-men and their season knowing they needed to be 1-2 headed into a divisional game on a short week against the Redskins.
Final Grade: A…Result, Win
Contest line: SEAHAWKS -5
Every now and again we get loose in our handicapping, straying from the basics that create profitable situations throughout the season. I’ll be the first to admit this was a play where I tried to outsmart the market, relying more on X’s and O’s to win a bet then line science. Lesson learned: don’t do that again unless you want to sweat a game to the bitter end. Despite having a 17-3 headed to the fourth, the Seahawks had a dogfight on their hands…needing to work for everything in the Superbowl rematch. Let’s just say talent won out here but I was clearly the beneficiary of a coin flip.
Did I beat closing line? No, I was forced to lay -5 in the contest but the line actually closed Seattle -4. If you don’t get the best of the number in the NFL you’re long term prognosis for success diminishes greatly.
Did the Seahawks win the box score? Yes, they outgained Denver 384-332 and picked up 6 more first downs than the visitors. They benefited from a +1 margin in the turnover department.
Did the Seahawks stay outside the number all game? Yes and no…they had a commanding 17-3 for a good portion of the game until Denver started on the comeback trail. It looked like the game would end 17-12 until Seattle kicked a late field goal to go outside the number before Denver answered in the final minute. Fortunately for Seahawks backers they won the toss and marched the length of the field to cover…a situation that wouldn’t have unfolded if not for a favorable coin toss.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Absolutely not. This was a chance for the Broncos to erase a bad taste from their mouth and they nearly did that in dramatic fashion. Instead of letting a situation come to me I forced a bet hoping personnel would make the difference rather than backing the revenge angle. Clearly luck was on my side but that’s not a recipe to create long term success.
Final Grade: C-…Result, Win
Contest line: STEELERS +3.5
Extra time to prepare, especially off a loss, is always a blessing for teams in the NFL. The Steelers had this working in their favor on the heels of a disappointing effort vs Baltimore 10 days before heading into Carolina. Mike Tomlin doesn’t leave me brimming with confidence as a preparation guy but he’s still above average in that department. Carolina was off to a quick 2-0 start but a deeper dive into their resume revealed a flawed football team susceptible to opposing rushing attacks. Getting a hungrier team with 3 and the hook was too attractive to pass up for me.
Did I beat closing line? Push…depending on where you looked this game closed Carolina -3 with heavy juice or even 3.5 given the huge public support on Ron Rivera’s troops.
Did the Steelers win the box score? Yes, they pummeled Carolina on the ground 264-42 and kept the Panthers at bay all night long. Cam Newton and company were able to throw for over 300 yards but a bulk of those came in garbage time with the outcome already decided.
Did the Steelers stay inside the number all game? Yes. Pittsburgh found themselves down 3-0 but went on to outscore Carolina 37-16 the remainder of the game. Having 3.5 points in my back pocket meant a box to wire cover which you take anytime you can in the NFL.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Yes; getting an above average team/coach with extra time to prepare for a primetime game coming off an embarrassing loss. Carolina was over valued off a 2-0 start, a result not indicative of what the box scores told me.
Final Grade: A…Result, Win
Contest line: Jets -3
Home game on national tv against an opponent that didn’t look nearly as good as their final score a week ago now flying across the country for a 2nd straight road game…only needing to lay a short price? Where do I sign up…However sometimes the best laid plans don’t come to fruition and the Jets proved to be their own worst enemy. Spotting the Bears a 14-0 lead despite only surrendering 6 yards on defense was a tough way to start the game, eventually proving to be a hole too big for the offensively challenged Jets to overcome.
Did I beat closing line? Absolutely not. My ego got the best of me here, willing to lay a horrific price because I thought it wouldn’t matter in the outcome. In reality the Jets closed -1.5 under an avalanche of Bears support and I could have laid a price as low as -115 on the moneyline.
Did the Jets win the box score? Yes, by a decided margin outgaining their opponents 414-257. Turnovers are the great equalizer and the Bears had plenty go their way including a Pick 6 to start the game, a fumble by Jay Cutler that should have been 7 for the Jets, and a Geno Smith INT in the redzone. Despite all of these miscues, the Jets still had a chance to tie on their final drive but again couldn’t execute.
Did the Jets stay outside the number all game? No. The Jets never led and that’s a big problem when you back a favorite. Too many empty trips to the redzone and costly mistakes prevented them from grabbing a lead. However I can’t help but wonder how different the game would have been if they went into the break with a 20-17 lead off the blown call.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Yes; getting the Jets at home in a primetime situation against a Bears side in a brutal sandwich spot. Unfortunately Geno let the Bears get early momentum with a defensive TD and then a blown pass interference call only added to the Jets deficit
Final Grade: B+…Result, Loss
This is a game I’d bet the next 99 of 100 times despite the mismatch in the secondary. I typically believe there are 3 critical turning point plays in a NFL game and you need to win 2 of them to get a cover. The Jets didn’t get a single one yet still had a chance to send the game to OT but came up a few yards short.
