EPL Round 5
Our weekly look at the EPL slate from the one and only James Kempton
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QPR v Stoke City
Pick Em and Goal line of 2
These are the games that QPR have to win if they are to retain their EPL status come the end of the season. Stoke are so resilient though and coming off the back of a disappointing home defeat at the hands of Leicester I see a better showing from them here. Factor in Mark Hughes returning to Loftus Road and I see a motivated away side avoiding defeat. Four meetings of the sides in the EPL since November 2011 and only one of those cashed an overs ticket on a goal line set at 2.
Aston Villa v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.75 and Goal line of 2.5
Villa have made such a bright and promising start to the season. This will be a real test for them as the confidence gained from the fantastic points haul obtained so far in the campaign may allow them to play looser than they ordinarily would. Can they play in the same conservative manner that they would have done against a Gunners side of they hadn’t started the season so brightly? Considering they haven’t won any of the last 15 EPL match ups at Villa Park they might as well have a go. If they do though it could spell carnage for what has been up until now a tight home backline. Give me the over 2.5 goals and the away side in this game.
Burnley v Sunderland
Pick Em and Goal line of 2
Another game where the home team will have circled it on the schedule as a must win game. Their goalless draw at Crystal Palace last time out will give them hope that they can keep it right against fellow EPL strugglers. Sunderland scrapped like crazy in their 2-2 home draw with Spurs last time out. Last season Sunderland won just 1 of their nine away games to sides in the bottom half of the table and there was a total of just thirteen goals in those matches. Unless an early goal ignites this game it could be a low scoring encounter, possibly settled by one goal and given the trends for Sunderland the lean would be toward the home side.
Newcastle United v Hull City
Newcastle -0.5 and Goal line of 2.25
The home fans will be loud this weekend. Whether it be baying for the head of Alan Pardew on a stick or in cheering the home side as the goals go in, they will be loud. When a lot of the home support would like you to lose a game so there are changes at the top it’s hard to go to the window and back that team. Hull drew two apiece with West Ham on Monday night whilst Newcastle were also involved in a game where four goals went in yet the line is set at just 2.25 goals. Both of last seasons meetings saw five goals but Hull will surely look to keep this game tight early and hope the crowd get into the home team. Should you bet the statistical trends of overs or should you go with your gut and go with the under? Your call as I have no idea!
Swansea City v Southampton
Swansea -0.25 and Goal line of 2.5
The two surprise sides of the season so far meet here in Wales. This should be a very attractive game to watch full of neat and tidy passing moves which will act as a coaching master lass. From a betting perspective it is a tough one to call. Will the similar styles cancel each other out or will both sides flourish with the time they are given on the ball? Historical trends say that they will cancel each other out as all four EPL meetings have gone under 2.5 goals with only five total goals finding the back of the net. Swansea failed to win any of those four meetings so it’s a brave man, despite their great start to the season, who heads to the window to back the home side this weekend.
West Ham Utd v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.75 and Goal line of 2.75
Liverpool will not have the luxury this season of having a full week to prepare for many of their fixtures. European involvement means a condensed working week for them so until I see the effects this has on them I will be staying away from their matches from a match betting perspective. The last five meetings of the sides at Upton Park have all gone over 2.5 goals so even with the line set at 2.75 I’d be happy with an overs ticket.
Leicester City v Man Utd
Man Utd -1 and Goal line of 2.75
United are back and all is well at the Theatre of Dreams. Maybe not quite but I sense there is now a renewed optimism and sense of belief in the squad. Leicester had a good win at Stoke last time out but this is a different proposition. Take the Red Devils to take all three points here but on a line of -1 are they value on the handicap line? Following home draws with Everton and Arsenal I’m not sure you can take United any way bar Straight Up. Until they prove me otherwise with this new offensive look I will take an overs ticket in each of their games for a small amount.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Bromwich Albion
Spurs -1 and Goal line of 2.75
I have a theory about Spurs under the new management regime. I’m not willing to share it just yet as it may not surface itself in this game. Having said that if they do not perform well in this spot against a weak Albion side then I may divulge my thoughts. The last three games at White Hart Lane have gone under 2.5 goals and Spurs have covered a -1 line just twice in sixteen EPL meetings of the sides since December 2002. West Brom are dreadful so despite the trends this is a no bet for me but if I was being forced to lean one away or the other it’d be with the dog.
Everton v Crystal Palace
Everton -1.25 and Goal line of 2.75
Cannon fodder is what Palace were supposed to be earlier in the year when the London club traveled to Goodison Park for an April fixture. Palace won that night and effectively ended the Champions League dreams of the Toffees. The Blues won’t have forgotten that and I see Palace being put to the sword and sweet revenge extracted. Everton have scored at least twice in their last seven home league games so even with a goal line set at 2.75 I would lean toward the overs.
Manchester City v Chelsea
Man City -0.25 and Goal line of 2.5
The two best sides in the EPL meet at the Etihad and you know full well that Jose Mourinho has a plan up his sleeve for this game. Last season they frustrated City before sneaking a winner and holding on for a 1-0 victory. Until late in the season that looked as if it could be the difference in the Championship race until Chelsea’s late collapse. At the available market price the bet for me would be to take the home side at plus money Straight Up. Diego Costa is a great striker but here he is up against Vincent Kompany so he may not be as big a factor in this game as in previous matches.
