EPL Round 4

It will be very interesting to see how the new format for Qualification games affect players this weekend.  The splitting up to different days rather than traditional Tuesday/Wednesday games means some players will return to their clubs earlier than others. England played Monday so by Tuesday lunchtime they were able to be back at home resting, actively assessed by their club sides.  Wales, for example using Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey, played Tuesday night. This gives the management at clubs difficult issues in terms of planning and strategy in such a fragmented working week.

Analysis courtesy of James Kempton

Man City -0.25 and 2.75 goals

The last seven meetings of the sides at the Emirates have gone under 2.5 goals so with this line set at 2.75 goals you have to favour the under line. I see City setting up defensively and looking to hit Arsenal on the counter attack when their powerful midfield unit muscle Arsenal off the ball. This is screaming under 2.75 goals to me as it may be one goal either way that seals it.

Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals

The top two, who’d have thought that, meet at Stamford Bridge and the Blues have only covered this line in two of the sides’ six meetings.  Both were at Stamford Bridge though where Chelsea have outscored Swansea 7-1 in the three games in the capital. Swansea have never scored more than once in an EPL game against Chelsea but Jose Mourinho’s team has looked vulnerable this season defensively whilst Swansea have looked lively in attack. Diego Costa is struggling with a hamstring injury and is a game time decision.  Costa has added an extra dimension to this Chelsea attack so with him in the line up I will take the over 2.75 goal line, without him in the line up I will pass on the game.

Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals

In Palace’s final twelve games last season under Tony Pulis they conceded twelve goals, five of which were to Liverpool and Everton.  So far this campaign they have conceded eight goals in three games. Burnley enter this game having scored just one goal in three games so trusting them to score here is a big ask for us as bettors. I sense this will revert to a cagier game than those Palace goals this season suggest so will lean towards an under 2.25 goals ticket at Selhurst Park.

Southampton -0.5 and 2.5 goals

Southampton have won the last two seasons’ meetings of the sides at St Marys to nil, 4-0 last term and 2-0 in the previous campaign. However, none of the three different scorers for the Saints in that game will be pulling on a home jersey this weekend. It is a tough time for the south coast based club so despite my positive thoughts on Newcastle diminishing each week I will take the black and whites to get at least a point here.  The under 2.5 goals also looks a decent play until Southampton prove they can break down a team on home soil I will fade their ability to be involved in a shoot out.

Stoke -0.25 and 2.25 goals

I am slightly bemused at this line as Stoke are a proven commodity in these such fixtures.  Over the last two seasons Stoke have played 19 games at the Britannia Stadium against sides in the bottom half of the table, where Leicester will almost certainly reside come May. They have won 11, drawn 6 and lost just 2 of those games but are priced up only a -0.25 favourite for this encounter.  Leicester have started the season well but lets not get carried away, they haven’t won a game yet! Give me Stoke in this one as some good value to follow up their win last time out at the Etihad.

Spurs -0.25 and 2.5 goals

Tottenham will be looking to bounce back following that poor home loss to Liverpool last time out. They will be confident here traveling to a Sunderland side who have not beaten Spurs in the last 8 EPL meetings of the two sides. 3 of the last 4 EPL games in the North East have ended 2-1 to Spurs with the other game ending goalless. Sunderland held Man Utd to a 1-1 draw in their opening EPL home game but is that even considered a great result anymore? Gus Poyet is showing signs that he is turning the Stadium of Light into a fortress once more so I take the home team to at least gain a point as I lean towards Sunderland +0.25 on the handicap line.

Everton -0.25 and 2.5 goals

These two sides languish near the foot of the table and even though it is early in the season I will once again voice my concerns for Everton. Their strong defence has been one of the foundations of their success in recent years but it has looked decidedly shaky so far this term. Here they travel to the Hawthornes where they have won just one of their last four EPL trips and interestingly all four of those have gone under a 2.5 goal line.  This is a game where if Everton kick out of first gear they should cruise to victory but nothing I have seen so far this season would encourage me to go to the window to bet the away team.

Liverpool -1.75 and 3 goals

Liverpool all the way here, right?  Villa seem to have the knack of playing on the break at Anfield and finding an away goal as both teams have found the back of the net in each of the last three EPL meetings on Merseyside. The home side has, for whatever reason, not won any of the last 6 EPL matchups so anybody wanting to back the home side giving up the 1.75 goals is really looking to buck the trends.  With a goal line set at 3 I am also going to pass on the goal markets as well.

Man Utd -1.5 and 2.75 goals

United have recruited excellently in the last few weeks but how many of these new additions will we see this weekend?  With the international break there has been little time for Louis Van Gaal to get these players gelling on the training ground.  Will he roll them out this Sunday at Old Trafford and just expect their footballing IQ works out the situations they face? I am not convinced such an experienced manager would do this but in truth what options does he have?  Not many options so when you factor in how bad QPR look set to be this season away from the tight confines of Loftus Road I will heavily lean towards the home team.

Hull -0.25 and 2.25 goals

Hull versus West Ham on a Monday Night Football could see many of us English folk grab an early night to get over the weekends excesses. Both meetings of the teams last season ended in home wins and there is nothing much here that makes me want to support the Hammers. Back the draw outright though, as who can trust Hull, or leave this game alone.

Stoke -0.25 (my best bet)

Southampton/Newcastle under 2.5 goals

Arsenal/Man City under 2.75 goals