Sharp Money
I woke up this morning and scrolled through my timeline; the amount of irate Tennessee fans (after a win mind you) put a smile on my face. Betting isn’t personal but they appeared to take it that way when the sharpest bettors in the world were staunchly opposing the Vols last night. By the time the game kicked off, UT had moved from its market peak of -6.5 to a closing price of -3. Every line move tells a story about a particular game; even if the story doesn’t play out on the field like the betting market suggests it will.
Sharp money isn’t always right. That’s the first myth about sportsbetting that needs to be squashed right here. Those thinking differently are sorely mistaken, operating under the incorrect assumption that the best betting groups achieve a success rate of astronomical proportions. For every game like West Virginia, California, or Temple that go exactly as anticipated, there are games like last night with Utah St or Saturday with Florida Atlantic when the biggest bettors in the world don’t get it right. Folks new to the industry (and even those that are old hats) have to understand knowing the exact reason behind every line move is impossible information to obtain without a pipeline directly to large betting groups. However understanding if a line move is public or professional is extremely helpful in understanding when to enter the market.
The perfect example of a game from Saturday that illustrates optimal market played out Saturday in West Lafayette. Sharp money came flooding in on the Western Michigan Broncos; pushing the price from +13 all the way down to +7 before kickoff. Inevitably the game ended up falling 9 when Purdue walked out of their home opener with a 43-34 victory; meaning the initial surge of money from the pros won while a bettor believing the line move was ill advised won his bet by waiting until the price bottomed out at -7. There are plenty of smaller bettors developing power ratings on their own that won’t impact the market like big money movers but they still understand knowing who the big boys are on allows them to improve long term results because there is no substitute for grabbing the best of the number.
Throughout the course of the season I’ll do my best to distinguish between the Pros and Joes bets being made on both Saturdays and Sundays. This information isn’t there to be blindly tailed because most prices will be long gone by kickoff. However it should help those looking to identify what sharp bettors look at before making a large wager. See the information as another useful tool in developing proper valuations of certain teams especially if lines move for or against certain teams for consecutive weeks. You’ll notice the over valued and under valued sides faster than you initially thought possible while potentially uncovering new handicapping angles. Also don’t take the information personally as a knock on your favorite football team, professionals bet numbers not teams. To those Vol fans pounding their chest after proving Vegas wrong last night? I’d still hold off on scheduling a trip to Dallas for the national championship…at least for a few more weeks.
