1 Touch Round 3
As we head into Week 3 of the EPL sides are beginning to take form. It’s still too early to push the panic button on Manchester United (we think) while it’s premature to anoint Man City back to back champions. Diego Costa went down with a nasty hamstring injury and somehow Aston Villa has 4 points this season with only 1 shot on target. Bring on the games and the analysis of our soccer guru James Kempton.
Burnley v Manchester United
United have to win…Don’t they? Who knows though after their midweek humiliation at Milton Keynes in the Capital Cup. Even I, one of LVG’s biggest supporters, cannot back them in this spot. United don’t want to put on a show here and look to win by two or three goals, they just need a win! With the attacking threat on display for United I struggle to believe they will not find the net, can they keep a clean sheet here? Maybe but I lean towards the over 2.5 goals in a match we’re probably best to swerve.
Manchester City v Stoke
City have won the last six meetings of the sides at the Etihad…all to nil. Four of those fixtures were by a three goal margin which is what is obviously required here to cash your ticket. It’s a big number to give up on the heels of that dominating win over Liverpool and ahead of their match up with Arsenal (sandwich anyone?). The win is all that Pelligrini cares about but Stoke have been so poor this season I cannot trust them to keep it tight.
Newcastle United v Crystal Palace
Newcastle did the double over Palace last season and nothing we’ve seen so far this season makes me think they won’t again this term. The home side have been fairly impressive whilst Palace are in shambles even with a newly appointed manager. I’d rather take the home side on a -0.5 but if I had to bet this game on the market lines I would still lean towards the home side and the over.
QPR v Sunderland
I sometimes wonder if the books watch these EPL games before they price them up? Sunderland have been impressive so far this season under coach Poyet whilst QPR look devoid of any attacking threat. I’m sure many of the Rangers players are already checking their contracts for a relegation release clause! Give me the away side with a quarter goal head start.
Swansea City v West Bromwich United
Some matches you should just leave an outright bet alone and head straight to the goal markets, this is one such game. The sides have met six times in EPL history with over 2.5 goals going 5-1. The one game that didn’t cash the over finished with a total of two goals. All three meetings in Wales have hit the over, can you see where I am going here? Over 2.5 goals in this one.
West Ham United v Southampton
Having said last week I was keen on Southampton on the road this season…I am but not enough to blindly bet in every spot and this looks a good opportunity to back the home side. The two meetings at Upton Park in EPL history have finished in 3-1 and 4-1 home wins, that was when Southampton was good! With the line set at a Pick Em, I really like the Hammers to go home happy.
Everton v Chelsea
You cannot back Chelsea here, it’s as simple as that. Everton has won four and drawn one in the last six meetings of the sides at Goodison Park. I am not fully convinced that the home team will be as good this season as they were last but those stats just sway you away from backing Chelsea. Jose Mourinho would view a point here in a nationally televised game in a hostile atmosphere as a great result. For that reason alone I will completely avoid this game.
Aston Villa v Hull City
Over the last five years these sides have met three times at Villa Park. All three games finished in a home win and from a total of six overall games between them during that time, Villa’s won five with the other game finishing level. There is just something though that stops me from backing Villa at home as they lack real creative threat when teams sit off of them (1 shot on target in 2 games!). If I had to lean one way or the other on the goals market I’d go under 2 but you know I really hate going with such a low total.
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
I think the books have seen the last two meetings where Liverpool’s won by a combined 9-0 scoreline and over-reacted a little here pricing Liverpool favourite on a Pick Em line. That said I am not saying Liverpool cannot win this game because they can. I see these sides as very similar in terms of overall quality but if you ranked the players on show in order, Liverpool have the players at both ends of the ability spectrum. This game could explode into an avalanche of goals or it could be a very congested midfield area battle which may see both sides cancel each other out. If pushed, on a Pick Em line I will side with the extra quality of Liverpool in the forward areas.
Leicester City v Arsenal
These are the sorts of games I like to back Arsenal… especially a game away from home where the home side will feel drawn forward by the occasion and the crowd. This sets up perfectly for Arsenal to play on the break and take the game so give me the away side here. I also like overs here as the defensive frailties Arsenal have shown makes me think Leicester can find the back of the onion bag.
