EPL Outlook
Posted by Todd on Aug 12, 2014 in Soccer
If you weren’t already drawn in by the magic and the excitement of the game you Americans call soccer then I am sure the recent World Cup has piqued your interest. The World Cup should be just the appetizer for the main course that the EPL serves up this winter. Set your alarm clocks early each Saturday and prepare for the hustle and bustle of soccer action to be your perfect college football appetizer. However I’m not here to sell you on the beautiful game. The bigger question is there any value to be had in holding a futures ticket for nine months in the hope you will cash? When assessing this you have to remember that the EPL and other major soccer leagues around Europe do not replicate American sport. There is no attempt towards parity between teams and it’s very difficult to make a case for every team in the table to lift a trophy. With that in mind you’d expect me to sit here and suggest that a futures ticket in a limited market becomes somewhat worthless but that isn’t the case especially if you believe that this seasons EPL will be a very tight affair coming down to the wire. Between November and May of last seasons EPL campaign there was no fewer than sixteen lead changes at the top of the table. Four different sides occupied the top spot and during that spell creating plenty of chances to find value on the sides not occupying the top spot
So who are the most likely contenders this season? I have narrowed it down to the two clubs from Manchester and Chelsea. Before we discuss that trio I have to placate the legion of Arsenal and Liverpool fans who are sure to bomb my Twitter timeline with club rhetoric as to how their teams will prevail this season.
Arsenal have suffered in recent times when it comes to performing in the big games. They haven’t been able to overcome the challenge of teams in and around them in the table. Mainly this is the result of a weak midfield when not in possession of the ball. This summer was an ideal opportunity to address the need for a ball winning midfielder. They chose not to dig deep into their pockets and pay the cash needed for a truly world class defensive midfielder. They obviously purchased another attacking option with a history of injuries, Alexis Sanchez, to ensure 2-0 home wins are turned into 4-0 home wins. However, the failure of Arsene Wenger to buy in need positions will once again halt any Arsenal championship bid.
Liverpool lost star striker Luis Suarez to Barcelona but that is not my main reasoning as to why they won’t win the title. They have spent the transfer money received from the Catalans very well. The signing of Dejan Lovren from Southampton should see a tightening up of a back line that looked very shaky at times last season. The direct replacements, Ricky Lambert and Adam Lallana, will do well and Raheem Sterling will become more of a regular in the starting line up. However, the reason why they cannot sustain a challenge at the top of the league is their Champions League campaign. Resources will be spread too thin over the competitions and unnecessary points will inevitably be lost.
The three main contenders for the league title then become Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United.
Chelsea appear to have bought well this summer; the arrivals of Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas being the biggest names to now call Stamford Bridge their home. My concerns for Chelsea may centre around a defence that although strong with their top line up, may be tested through the rigours of a long season competing across four competitions. Chelsea have a master tactician at the helm though in Jose Mourinho and he is the man get the best out of this squad across a number of competitions. The loss of Frank Lampard, to Manchester City and then the MLS, could be crucial as I am not sure in the midfield areas they have the nouse to go the distance in the title race. The recent injury to Didier Drogba up front isn’t crippling but it will hurt a team with limited striker depth already a concern.
Manchester City are a strong outfit but with two league titles in the last three years, will their eyes be fully focused on the EPL title? The lure of Champions League success may see City boss Manuel Pelligrini focus his preparations around midweek trips to Europe rather than weekend trips to Stoke! They have quality all of over the pitch and the signings of proven EPL stars Bacary Sagna and Frank Lampard (if only temporarily) will add strength and depth to an already strong roster.
After last seasons debacle it would take a brave man to suggest
Manchester United can rise from a dismal seventh position to lift the trophy this May. My bravery is never questioned in betting terms but I’m not here to guarantee United wins the league. Instead I do see them offering some good potential trading value by buying into them now. At any price of +450 I think a ticket in their name will be worth more in the near future. New manager Louis Van Gaal is a massive name in the football world and he’ll command far more respect, both in the changing room and from the stands, than his predecessor David Moyes ever could. Tactically I sense Van Gaal may set United up quite similarly to his Netherlands side in the recent World Cup where he showed no reluctance in benching RVP when the time was right. Fully aware that defensive strength is at a premium at Old Trafford these days they may play cautiously, such a tactic that would normally not sit well with the United faithful. However, after the results last season and with Van Gaal’s reputation as a winner the Dutchman will be given far more leeway to be defensive as long as he wins! You can always play in that style when you have players of the ability of Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney in your attacking third of the pitch. The schedule compilers also dealt them a very favourable draw with seven of their first eight games against sides expected to finish in the bottom half of the table. This includes a run from games three to five where they play each of the newly promoted sides in succession. When they do begin to face the more fancied clubs in the division the European campaigns will be well under way. Thanks to that awful finish last season United are not competing in Europe this season, allowing Van Gaal to fully concentrate on competing in the EPL. Can they win the league? Probably not. Can they be in the race for the title until the final days of the season like Liverpool did last season? Very possible. At the current market price with the relatively easy start to the season for United, they are definitely the stand out value in the market.
