Large Numbers
Big sporting events mean big betting limits. Superbowl, national championships, World Cup final: you name it and a good sportsbook operator should embrace the action if he trusts his numbers. Pinnacle sports recognized the opportunity in front of them this coming weekend leading to their choice of a nice round number for Germany vs Argentina: $1,000,000 limits on spread bets. No, this isn’t a gimmick it’s an offshore leader indicating the strength in their numbers inviting sharp action from the world’s best bettors. Within minutes of Argentina’s penalty kick win over the Netherlands, oddsmakers hung prices they believed were air tight for the final.
Opening lines (prices have moved obviously)
Spread:
Germany @ -0.25 1.99 (-101)
Argentina @ +0.25 1.95 (-105)
1X2:
Germany @ 2.32 (+132)
Draw @ 3.32 (+232)
Argentina @ 3.46 (+246)
Totals:
Over 2 goals @ 1.88 (-114)
Under 2 goals @ 2.04 (+104)
It came as no shock to the bookmakers at Pinnacle the first wave of bets came in on the Germans given the dismantling of Brazil still fresh in bettors heads.
“Ultimately, Germany’s dominance made them a clear favourite entering the finals over an Argentinian team that hasn’t had a similar standout performance and failed to score in 120 minutes against Netherlands. At the same time, Argentina’s four clean sheets kept our estimates on opening lines relatively close. Of course, as always, money will determine which way they’ll move,” a marketing spokesperson at Pinnacle said
Every bettor has been there before, enamored with the last thing we see on the pitch governed by a phenomenon called recency bias. How quickly the pedestrian efforts from the German side were in tying Ghana, sneaking by the USA, squeezing out a win vs Algeria, or just nicking the French side 1-0. In fact, Germany actually closed an underdog in their quarterfinal game against France and I’d imagine there are very few handicappers or oddsmakers out there who see France as a superior side to this Argentinian group. It just goes to show for a sporting event of this magnitude on the international stage (think NFL playoffs here in the states) oddsmakers have to throw out power ratings and make wholesale changes based largely on just the result of one game. The more competitive and transparent a match-up allows oddsmakers the opportunity to take larger than normal bets. I can say with 100% confidence there won’t be any claims of impropriety on the pitch from the Maracana on Sunday.
“Pinnacle Sports expects the final of the 2014 World Cup to be the most bet single sporting event of all-time. The tournament as a whole has dwarfed other events and the world-spanning final between two soccer powers will appeal to all audiences. In addition, the $1,000,000 limits Pinnacle Sports will offer in the final 8 hours leading to kick-off are the highest ever. Of course, bettors can always bet multiple times if they find those limits prohibitive. It’s also worth mentioning that live betting for the event will also see a record high, with $100,000 limits,” added Pinnacle’s spokesperson.
Major sporting events the magnitude of the World Cup are celebrated like holidays around the world. Fortunately for bettors with access to some of the biggest sportsbooks they can get their fix with larger than normal limits. While the fate of 2 nations hangs in the balance this weekend, there will at least be a few bettors out there richer or poorer by nearly 7 figures when the dust finally settles.
