Win, Lose, or Draw
For 2 hours this weekend Soccer, yes soccer of the American variety, captured the attention of our entire country. Bars and viewing parties from New York to Chicago to Kansas City were filled to the brim with optimistic soccer fans holding their breath waiting for the whistle to blow on what should have been a 2-1 victory for the stars and stripes. We groaned with an errant clearance in the 5th minute that led to Nani’s goal; We were rejuvenated when Jermaine Jones perfectly struck ball slid inside the post in the 64th minute; We erupted with excitement when Clint Dempsey’s goal in the 81st minute looked to secure our passage to the round of 16 and then we died with the outstanding cross from Cristiano Ronaldo in stoppage time that left us hollow with a 2-2 draw.
Bookmakers rooting for the good guys breathed a sigh of relief getting a draw as the optimal result, not dashing advancement prospects for Team USA but while protecting their balance sheets in a game that saw nearly 74% of the money being wagered on the Red, White, and Blue. While we as a nation still lick our collective wounds, all isn’t lost as the focus shifts towards Thursday’s monumental tilt with Jurgen Klinsman’s homeland the Panzer Tanks of Germany. Interestingly enough the price being offered at betting shops throughout Europe don’t scream I believe that we will win but rather I believe that we may draw.
Now about that pesky 3 way line and what we can read into it…Portugal ended up closing -135 Sunday against the United States at most of the large offshore books yet Germany opens up at nearly the exact same price overseas? Clearly oddsmakers aren’t in the business of creating value in a betting market purely by happenstance or insinuating that Germany and Portugal are power rated as equals. This is a strong indication that USA will be up against it, facing odds of nearly 8-1 in some locales. It’s not easy to be optimistic with such a daunting task on tap, needing to get a result against a German side that entered the tournament as 3rd favorite to capture World Cup glory. When the game Sunday held a 2-1 scoreline indicating it was all but a lock for Team USA to get out of the group stage, the draw price for our 3rd fixture against Germany was nearly 4-1. Germany also listed as a much heavier favorite, one in line of what you’d expect for a tournament favorite. After Portugal found the back of the ole onion bag that price came crashing down across Europe…not to an expected +300 range on a 3 way draw line line instead the number reopened at +180…and crashed even further to a paltry +150 at some books. Logical question: why such a major move…was there an injury? No. Was 1 side going to mail it in? Maybe. Had power ratings suddenly changed in a matter of minutes? Absolutely not. Hmm maybe there was speculation that something else could be in play behind closed doors…
This kind of line movement makes sense when you think about it; both Germany and the United States only need a draw to guarantee entry into the round of 16 so why shouldn’t there be significant money on the game ending in a stalemate? I won’t say collusion is in the air but every point spread tells a story and it will be fascinating to monitor line movement throughout the week. Germany is no stranger to pre-determined results on soccer’s biggest stage, back in 1982 colluding with Austria (allegedly) to keep the upstart Algerians from progressing through this very same group stage. Described as one of soccer’s darkest days by some, there is precedent for team’s working together to protect one another’s mutual interests. It’s only fitting that Algeria posted their first world cup win since that fateful 1982 cup earlier on Sunday creating a storyline that could pit Germany against those same Desert Foxes hell bent on 32 years worth of revenge in their first game next round.
I’m not here to suggest collusion between Jurgen and his old confederation is a foregone conclusion it’s just worth considering. My job as an oddsmaker is to interpret the numbers and make sense of what story they’re telling me. The draw price currently posted is the lowest in this 2014 World Cup with good reason. What’s to say if this game is knotted up at 1 come the 65th minute that the two sides with dreams of advancement won’t simply kick it around for the remaining 25 minutes to ensure survival. Obviously there’s a good chance Germany and USA will have the feel of an elimination game, filled with emotion akin to sport’s winner take all contests but there’s also a scenario where neither side aspires to grab all 3 points. Meanwhile elsewhere in Brazil at the exact same time as the United States and Germany fight to keep their World Cup dreams alive, Portugal and Ghana will be embroiled in their own battle, fighting not only for 3 points but also to make up valuable goal differential against the United States. It will undoubtedly be interesting to read player comments, interpret actions, and watch line movement before history unfolds on Thursday. Let’s just hope come late Thursday morning here on the west coast it’s a tale that ends happily ever after instead of one filled with heartbreak, despair, and what could have/should have been.
Here are the various scenarios that can unfold given the potential results during the tandem of Thursday fixtures.
