Preakness
On paper, the 2014 edition on the Preakness Stakes looks like a very easy race to handicap — bet the Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, and call it a day. But races aren’t run on paper, even one that seems as predictable as this one. I’ve said it many times in the past – the Preakness is a bit of a different race than the Kentucky Derby and requires a different handicapping mindset. In many ways, it’s a more predictable race, if for no other reason than the smaller fields, but it’s also a race that has been kind to Kentucky Derby also-rans (as recently as last year with Oxbow).
Written by KyDerbyJay
Before we move on to the Preakness, a bit about my Derby handicapping, and what I had to say about California Chrome:
“Yes, he has been the most impressive horse in the Derby prep season. He’s fast. He’s a great story, with his bargain-bin breeding. He certainly might be a freak that accelerates to an impressive win but he will do it without any of my financial support.”
Looking back at that, I don’t think I’d change anything. I still think he wasn’t a great value, but regret not wheeling him the field for exacta value. Commanding Curve, a horse I gave some respect (and whom Thoro-Graph endorse heavily), made for a very juicy exacta — and juicy payouts are why we are in this game. Also note that Todd asked me to provide some head-to-head wagering opportunities for my readers; I gave you 3, all of which were winners, including two underdogs <pats self on back>.
So, let’s look at the 2014 Preakness field, listed in order of my preference from worst to first:
(note: while Baltimore is expected to be hit by heavy rains on Friday, the forecast for Saturday looks clear, and it’s highly likely the race will be contested on a fast track)
Ring Weekend was the winner against a weak Tampa Day Derby field in March, and then finished second to an even weaker field in April’s Calder Derby. The well-bred gelding was Derby bound until a fever spiked, and he was declared. Note that the horse that beat him in the Calder Derby, Our Caravan, came back in last weekend’s Peter Pan — and was walloped by 20 lengths. This guy is regressing, and probably too slow to begin with.
Rio Antonia has a number of racing fans scratching their heads at her inclusion in this race. Sure, five fillies have won the Preakness, but does anybody think this little lady is remotely possible to be the sixth? She was well-beaten in the Kentucky Oaks, and her connections have decided that rather than chase super-filly Untapable around, that they’d rather chase…California Chrome. HUH? Her pace figures did show show moderate improvement last time out, but it will likely take a monster improvement for her to even hit the board. I’d further note that the mere fact that she’s a filly will likely draw a lot of novelty wagering, and she will be even a worse wagering value than normal.
Pablo Del Monte drew into the Kentucky Derby when Hoppertunity scratched, but his connections opted not to run him when faced when the prospects of the #20 post. This one is a one-dimisional front-runner, and will be an active participant in the race’s early pace. He’s never won on the dirt, and he’s never won beyond 6.5 furlongs. If I thought that he’d be able to be alone on the lead, I might be inclined to give him some consideration. But that scenario seems unlikely, and, as such, I can’t recommend him at all.
General a Rod was a horse who I completely dismissed in the Kentucky Derby, and I am inclined to do so here as well. I didn’t think he was fast enough then, nor did I think he was bred to get the distance. Both of those negatives still apply here, and despite a very favorable jockey switch to Javier Castellano, I still can’t find any reason to recommend.
Dynamic Impact was an impressive winner of the Illinois Derby at 14-1, just one race after breaking his maiden in his 5th try. In that victory, he earned a huge 102 Beyer, which put him right among the top Derby contenders. It was huge bump up from any of his previous performances, and came off a 47-day layoff. He gets a similar rest for this start, and his connections are obviously hoping for a repeat performance. I’m skeptical. Three-year-olds are certainly capable of pairing two career-performances, but I would want to see at least a little indication is his back races. I think he is a prime candidate for regression, but I will be watching the tote board on this one.
Bayern deserves consideration if for no other reason than that he hails from the prolific barn of Bob Baffert, who has won this race five times in fourteen tries, with a couple other board finishes. He doesn’t enter horses in this race lightly. Still, is this guy capable of being Baffert’s sixth to wear the Black-Eyed Susans? I think he’s an uber-talented colt, but I’m not sure this is the right spot for him. He didn’t look like he enjoyed the 1 1/8 in the Arkansas Derby, finishing third to Danza and Ride On Curlin. He looked more comfortable handling the one mile Derby Trial, a race he crossed the wire first, but was DQ’d. I just don’t think he looks like he’s going to relish the added distance of the Preakness. That said, I am going to assume that Baffert has him geared up, and a career performance to finish 2nd or 3rd would not surprise me at all.
Social Inclusion is the horse that skipped the Derby that is drawing by far the most attention, and I suppose I can see why. Winner of his first two starts, he ran against a strong field in the Wood Memorial, finishing behind the horses that ran 4th & 5th in the Kentucky Derby, flattering him in the process. It is probably a blessing in disguise that he didn’t qualify for the Derby field, as he gets to this race a very fresh colt. That said, this guy is a front-running type, a style that didn’t make the grade in the Wood Memorial, and I’m unconvinced that it’s a formula for success here either. Look, he’s obviously a very-talented, if a bit unseasoned, colt, and he has a chance to run big here. But he’s likely to be the 2nd wagering choice and I just don’t think he offers very much value at the wagering window. He has a negative pace scenario to overcome, and I won’t be using him on any win tickets.
Ride On Curlin was a horse I liked a liked a little bit in the Kentucky Derby, but had his chances compromised immediately by a wild and wooly ride in the race’s first ¼ mile. Trainer William Gowan was very critical of Calvin Borel’s ride — rightly so in my opinion — and opts for Joel Rosario for the mount here. Many of the reasons I liked him in the Derby still apply here — he has a running style that should suit this race fine, and he’s facing a far weaker field. That last part of the sentence alone is probably the most important — he could bit the board here without showing much improvement from his Derby figures. That said, he is a horse who is showing an increased ability to accelerate in the final two furlongs, and it seems likely that he will doing his best running late. Is he another Oxbow? Perhaps, and I think he deserves some serious attention as an upset candidate.
Kid Cruz is listed at a very appealing 20-1 in the morning line, and looks to me to be the true live longshot in this field. Here, I will borrow Predicteform’s analysis, a handicapping tool I respect highly:
Kid Cruz passed on running in the Illinos Derby which was won by Dynamic Impact who went 79.1/68.6 (final/4f) and instead ran in the Federico Tesio Stakes on the same day, where he won easily while posting a 67.9/55.8 (final/4f) Pace Figure, 11.2 points slower than the race he was originally pointed to. By itself, the 67.9 he ran is outmatched by all the runners in this race, and, by Final Pace Figure alone is a toss.
However, there are two Pace Figure indications that are worth noting. First, in January at New York’s Aqueduct, where it was near freezing with snow on the ground, Kid Cruz made up almost ten lengths in the stretch while putting up a 76.0/65.9. This is an indication that he can run a Pace Figure in the high 70s.
Secondly, his most recent two efforts were 66.4/45 (final/4f with a SOFT pattern), followed by a 67.9/55.8 most recent — in both starts Cruz was pulling away at the wire. He stretches out to 9.5 furlongs, the longest race of his career and by all indications (based on his huge dirt spreads), Kid Cruz will relish the extra distance.
Ok, so that was a mouthful, but I feel like it illustrates just what a big chance I would give Kid Cruz here. He looks like the horse with the best chance to do late running, and furthermore, he looks like the horse eligible for the biggest improvement. I give him a big chance here, and love him to hit the board.
California Chrome? He’s the class of this field, and if he runs his race, he will win. People have criticized the Derby as being too slow, but I feel like Victor Espinoza wisely saved him in the lane. I fully expect him to win this race, and I am going to try and find creative ways with Kid Cruz to make this race a viable wagering opportunity.
Head-to-head matchups I like:
Kid Cruz -150 Pablo Del Monte
Kid Cruz -180 Ring Weekend
Ride On Curlin -120 Dynamic Impact
