2014 Run for the Roses
Welcome to my 2014 Kentucky Derby preview…if you want to know more about what I look for in a potential Kentucky Derby winner, I refer you to my 2012 preview (where I picked 16-1 I’ll Have Another to win): http://www.toddstake.com/2012/05/04/run-for-the-roses-2012. I won’t regurgitate all that info, and instead will get right to this year’s field, which I have divided into varying degrees of class. Good luck to everyone!
Written by John Valter
Toss ‘Em –
Uncle Sigh tried rating for the first time in the Wood Memorial, and failed. Looks like he needs to be on lead to be competitive, and just isn’t as fast as most of these…Harry’s Holiday just doesn’t look good enough…Wildcat Red has never been worst than 2nd, but has never raced outside Florida. Is a speedy type that needs the lead; the pace scenario just doesn’t seem conducive for success. Will probably win some big races down the line, but not on Saturday night…Vicar’s In Trouble was an easy front-running winner of the Louisiana Derby, and gets popular jockey Rosie Napravnik in the irons. Will likely attract some attention at the windows, but the inside post likely spells doom. A complete toss as far as I am concerned…It seems fair to toss Vinceremo’s Blue Grass, but it’s not like the rest of his resume is that sparkling. Is likely just too slow…At press time, Wesley Ward had not announced whether Pablo Del Monte, on the Also-Eligible list, would take Hoppertunity’s spot, but it’s irrelevant in my mind. A complete non-factor.
Think About ‘Em…Then Toss ‘Em-
Samraat entered the Wood Memorial undefeated, but came up short. On paper, it doesn’t look like a bad effort, but visually is a different story. Entered the stretch looking like a winner, and then simply stalled when it counted. Would seem to only have a chance with an absolute dream trip…Danza woke up big-time in the Arkansas Derby, rolling to a 4 ¾ length victory at juicy 41-1 odds. That’s a double-edge sword. The horse had absolutely not business going off at those ridiculous odds, and rewarded his backers handsomely. However, you have to go back to the 1960s to find a Derby winner who went off at odds higher than 15-1 in his last Derby prep (regardless of the outcome in that race). He took a huge step forward at Hot Springs, and a similar effort would likely put him right in the mix here, but I’m skeptical he’s capable of doing so…Tapiture is a very honest knocker who seems to always be right in the mix. That said, he took a big step back in Arkansas, and I’m inclined to take a pass on him here…General a Rod will race in pinstripe silks, but presumably without the aid of steroids. Has a similar running-style to many others in here; likely needs the lead, and seems unlikely to stay the 1 ¼ trip. Needs to outrun his pedigree to be a factor, in my opinion…Commanding Curve will likely go off at pretty huge odds, and that, in and of itself, makes him somewhat attractive. Seems to be one of the ones in here who can stay the distance, but is likely just too slow. Most likely outcome is that he will pass a few tiring horses in the lane, and clunk up for a 5th or 6th place finish…Ride On Curlin is the one in this category I most strongly considered for a higher placing, and there are some things to like, including a proven ability to rate. That said, I keep coming back to one negative factor — his highest Brisnet speed figure came in sprint race (when breaking his maiden at Ellis Park last July), and that is a major red flag for me when handicapping the Derby. I’m not going to be stunned if he gets a piece, but I can’t endorse him as a play.
Give ‘Em Some Serious Thought-
Intense Holiday seems to be shaping up as this year’s “wise-guy” horse, which equates to depressed value. Certainly rounded into form in Louisiana, and has a favorable running-style for this field. That said, I’m not a huge fan of the Louisiana races in general, and I like others with his running style much better. Can definitely be a factor, but not in my top 5…To me, Chitu is the biggest question mark in this field. Just how much should be value his win in the Sunland Derby, which looks good both visually and on paper. He’s lightly raced, but he’s done very little wrong. The main problem is the green-ness, and, more importantly, his breeding — Henny Hughes does not scream a 1 ¼. Still, this Baffert-trained colt could very well be a freak, and, given that he most likely needs the lead, he will probably have to be. That said, among the speed horses, he’s one of the two who I think could hang around and hit the exotics. A lot of respect for this one…Medal Count is getting a lot of attention from some of the handicappers I respect most. He has a favorable running style for this field, and Dale Romans has been knocking on the Derby door for years. He reminds me of another recent Romans-trainee, Paddy O’ Prado, who was third in the 2010 Derby. While I’m not endorsing him for a win, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him equal that performance…Candy Boy exits a disappointing 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten by 8 lengths. I do like his two prior races quite a bit though. Three races back, he finished 2nd in the Cash Call Futurity at 26-1 odds. Most impressive was his acceleration from 10th to 5th from 1st call to 2nd call, something which I look for in a Derby contender. He followed that up with a very nice looking win the Robert B. Lewis. Can certainly bounce back from the Santa Anita, and had a very nice looking 5F workout on 4/26. Having Gary Stevens in the irons doesn’t hurt either. A win contender, but a notch below my top choices.
What To Do With The Favorite-
California Chrome is likely going to go off at odds of no higher than 3-1. That is probably enough for me to tell you to stay away. Yes, he has been the most impressive horse in the Derby prep season. He’s fast. He’s a great story, with his bargain-bin breeding. He certainly might be a freak that accelerates to an impressive win but he will do it without any of my financial support. I don’t think he has either the breeding or the running style to justify his odds. I respect him, but I will pass.
In The Money-
Wicked Strong was a very impressive winner of the Wood Memorial, getting a big jump in speed figure to do it. How for real was that jump? I feel like it was, and stamps him as a major player in this field. My main concern is this — is he a one-run only type that will be left with too much work to do in the Derby stretch? If he can get engaged just a tad bit earlier than he did in the Wood, then I feel like he has an excellent chance to wear the roses. No matter the case, he is the horse I feel most confident to hit the board, but I will endorse a couple others for the win slightly more…We Miss Artie was all-out to get up for a photo win the Spiral Stakes, a race that I found very visually pleasing. The main question with this guy is his ability to get it done on the dirt. On paper, he appears to have failed in his dirt efforts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & the Fountain of Youth. That said, he performed far better in those two races than the PPs would suggest. He has the ability to rate and he has shown some early acceleration. If he takes to the Churchill dirt at all, he has a very big chance…at what will probably be very big odds. I love love love his chances, and you should too.
The Garland of Roses-
Many are saying he can’t get the distance. Many are saying he is strictly a synthetic/turf horse. Many are dismissing his chances entirely. That’s fine — on Saturday evening, I believe the only thing people are going to be saying is that Dance With Fate is the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner. There is no race that impressed me more than Dance With Fate’s Blue Grass, a big sweeping five-wide move, in which he blew by the rest of the field. I love so much about this horse. I love that he enters the race off of back-to-back 1 1/8 mile races. I love that he zipped four furlongs on dirt last Saturday in :47 flat. Not bad for someone who supposedly is more of a synthetic/turf horse. It was the second fastest of 62 four-furlong works Saturday at Santa Anita. I love how the pace will set up for his sweeping move, and I love that he has been in front with a furlong to go in his last two races. This says to me that he has the ability to engage and accelerate early enough to get to the front in the lane in the Derby. In fact, that is what separates him from Wicked Strong, in my opinion – I think he will get the jump on that one. Winning the Derby requires a little bit of racing luck and a whole lot of talent. If he gets a good trip, I expect Dance With Fate to provide his jockey Corey Nakatani with a much deserved first Kentucky Derby victory. And, by the way…I think he will do so at odds of around 20-1.
New for 2014… Match-Up Wagering-
Todd asked me to look over some of the match-ups offered by some offshore books, and offer up some suggestions. Listed below are three that I see offering best bet potential
Dance With Fate -115 over Vicar’s In Trouble…
We Miss Artie +175 over General a Rod…
We Miss Artie +120 over Uncle Sigh…
