UCL Semifinals
Soccer’s final 4 kicks off later today and we brought in a hired gun to share his breakdown of the first leg. For those just starting to get their feet wet with soccer there are a few different betting options worth understanding before you even read this column and should be well aware of before heading blind into the World Cup this June from Brazil.
3 Way Line (Moneyline): This is the moneyline and a bit confusing to newer bettors because there is no refund if the game ends in a tie. You have 3 options: favorite, underdog, or draw. Yes, nothing says investing in a game hoping it ends in a tie but there is often a ton of value to be found here because the casual gambler avoids it like the plague.
2 Way Line (Pointspread): The favorite price on this bet will reflect the prices being offered on the 3 way. However just like more traditional American sports the higher the moneyline the “pointspread” will go from -.5 as high as needed to offer a secondary option to bettors. On these bets note they only include regulation so if a game goes to extra time (not stoppage time) the bet would be graded.
Asian Handicap: Probably the most confusing bet type for those that haven’t seen it before but picture having 1 bet at 2 different prices. For example if you see -.75 that means half your wager is at -.5 and the other half at -1. If you lay -.75 (-110) and risk 100 for a game that ends 2-1 you’d actually make 50 bucks while 50 bucks would be refunded.
For further soccer questions as we all prepare for the world’s greatest sporting event send them here
Without further fanfare the real reason you’re here, to get a read on today and tomorrow’s semifinals.
Written by Garrett Yancey (Find more of his work by clicking here)
Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid
First Leg: Vicente Calderon 4/22, Second Leg Stamford Bridge 4/30
Chelsea’s BPL title hopes took a major hit over the weekend, but you can always count on getting the best from Jose Mourinho’s squads in the Champion’s League. His track record in this competition is remarkable: he lifted the cup with both Porto and Inter Milan, and has taken Chelsea and Real Madrid to the semifinals. Mourinho’s defense-first approach certainly is not the prettiest, but it has been extremely successful in this two-legged competition over the years.
Atletico Madrid were certainly not projected to be in this position at the start of the season, but they have played some fantastic football to date. Diego Simeone’s men showed the entire world their class earlier this month by knocking out Barcelona but fans of the game were not shocked by the result given the direction each club was headed. Its name isn’t as recognizable as the others in the final four of this tournament however they might just be playing the best team soccer of anyone in the world right now. Diego Costa and his teammates up front make the most of their chances in front of goal and they defend extremely well as a unit, evidenced by their complete shutdown effort against Barcelona in the quarters.
Of the two semifinal ties, this one should by far be the cagier of the two. Atletico has defended well all season, and Mourinho is a master of defensive tactics in this competition. Given their respective defensive abilities, there shouldn’t be many goals in an opening leg where Atletico will be doing everything possible to avoid conceding an away goal to Chelsea. Mourinho’s men will also look to keep things tight at the Vicente Calderon, giving them the advantage heading into the second leg at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea have been close to unbeatable in Mourinho’s two tenures.
Picks: Draw +250, U 2 (+100)
Chelsea to advance (+110)
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
First Leg Bernabeu 4/23, Second Leg Allianz 4/29
The flashier of the two semifinals, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid is the matchup that many wanted for the final. Though that may not be the case, we’ll now be treated to two fantastic contests instead of just one with both teams chasing lofty goals: Bayern Munich hopes to become the first team to win this competition in back-to-back years since AC Milan in the late 1980s; Real Madrid hopes to end their elusive quest for “La Decima”, aka their tenth Champions League title.
While both these teams have star laden rosters both have serious question marks heading into the first leg. Bayern Munich locked up the Bundesliga title a few weeks ago and have been very unimpressive since. Fans and former players alike are questioning Pep Guardiola’s passing tactics that, while successful, have not produced the same attractive attacking style the team played with last year under Jupp Heynckes when Bayern won the treble. Conversely, Real Madrid should be thanking the soccer gods they are in the semifinal after their terrible performance in the second leg of the quarterfinal at Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund was the far better side on the night, having their way with Madrid’s back line despite not having anything close to their preferred first squad. Dortmund were unlucky to not find a third or fourth goal that would have moved them through to the semis. That being said, Ronaldo was not on the pitch that night and his absence provided ample evidence of what the Portuguese man means to Madrid.
Ronaldo will be back for the semis, and coupled with Gareth Bale up front (assuming he overcomes his recent battle with the flu), should wreak havoc on Bayern’s back line that has had trouble dealing with speedy attackers over the past few weeks. The far-less talented Danny Welbeck actually caused some problems for Munich in the quarters, and Dortmund’s blitzkrieg simply ruined Pep’s men at home by a scoreline of 3-0 just over a week ago. Madrid will get the win at home in front of a raucous Bernabeu crowd. The question then becomes…can they hold on at the Allianz? Given Bayern Munich’s uninspired play over the past few weeks, there can only be one side to back over the two legs.
Picks: Real Madrid PK (-130) (Take the PK for draw insurance)
Real Madrid To Qualify (+140)
