Attacking Futures
Futures bets are all about finding value. Striving to find a diamond in the rough and investing your money into it before everyone else realizes it’s potential and drives the value down. I bring this up because as we pass the halfway point of the college basketball season, I feel it is as good as time as any to take a peek at my futures bets, figure out why I placed them, and compare the odds I got to the odds each team opened with way back when. I warn you, the results might not be pretty.
** LVH future prices from the last week of October were used as opening odds for this column**
Iowa (My price: 40/1 Opening Price: 100/1 Current Price: 30/1):
Starting off hot with a future that has less than half the value of its opening price! I remembering placing this bet right before they played Wisconsin. Why you ask? Well leading up to that game, lots of “sharps” on Twitter had been talking up Iowa as not only a team that could upset undefeated Wisconsin but as a team that could do damage come tournament. Reading all that and seeing they were still available, a Top 25 team, at 40/1, I figured I had uncovered a steal and placed the bet. Now could Iowa but together a run come March allowing me to profit off this future? Absolutely, but I would feel a lot better sitting with 100/1 than 40/1.
Iowa St. (My price: 100/1 Opening Price: 100/1 Current Price: 35/1)
I’ve always liked Iowa St. I really have no clue why, I grew up in the Southeast, but something about Ames has always made me a fan. So imagine my happiness when I saw Iowa St. sitting at 100/1 as a ranked undefeated team fresh off a win over in state rival Iowa. I couldn’t place my bet fast enough. Turns out I was able to grab the same value that I would have gotten before the season started but alas this was the only future for Paddy Public in which that was the case.
Oregon (My price: 40/1 Opening Price: 50/1 Current Price: 60/1)
Quick pop quiz….name one player on Oregon this year. Can’t do it? Well neither can I and yet I have a future bet on them. Y’all may think I am making this up but I honestly know nothing about this team. Can’t name their coach, haven’t watched a second of any of their games and the only thing I could tell you is I know they lost to Colorado somewhat recently. So why did I place this bet? I can’t remember. Absolutely no clue. But what I do know is that I took the worst possible price. Quack Quack Quack.
UMass (My Price: 175/1 Opening Price: 500/1 Current Price: 200/1)
I remember watching UMass beat New Mexico and then follow that up by beating Clemson and thinking that this team had some potential. With those thoughts in my head I took to Twitter seeking confirmation and saw a reputable college basketball bettor Tweet out that he felt UMass had Elite Eight/Final Four potential. Boom, I was sold (Side note: It is completely absurd the amount of influence Twitter has on present day gambling but that is another column for another day). I placed my wager and UMass went out and immediately lost to FSU a week later, which sent their futures price shooting upwards. Whoops. That makes two of my five futures in which I took the worst possible number. It’s a miracle I’m not broke.
Wisconsin (My Price: 30/1 Opening Price: 75/1 Current Price: 12/1)
Perhaps my only future in which I would consider myself familiar with the team I bet on. I know bits and pieces about these other four teams, well not Oregon but the other three, but I have watched enough Wisconsin basketball to think I have a good grasp on this team. I know Bo Ryan is a hell of a coach. I know Wisconsin slows down the game to their pace and forces the opposition into bad shots. I know Kaminsky and Brust are quality players who rarely seem to get rattled. Perhaps most importantly though, I know when I see the team ranked 4th in the nation still listed at 30/1 in Mid-December that I have to wager on them. Would I like to be sitting on a 75/1 ticket right now? Of course, but seeing what the Badgers have done this year I can’t be to upset with a 30/1 future. On Wisconsin.
