Paddy Public: Learning Curve
My nickname is Paddy Public for a reason. For years I was the guy in the sports book wondering why his 3 team parlay of the biggest ML favorites wasn’t hitting and ripping up my Patriots -2.5 ticket because apparently that line wasn’t “a gift.” I was a chronic loser. However, I have been lucky enough over the past year or so to get to know some very successful bettors and because of that I have been able to shed some very poor gambling habits that used to drain my bankroll. While many who read this list might find these five things incredibly obvious, they weren’t obvious to me a year ago. I have forced myself to follow rules and as a result I have seen a tremendous shift when it comes to the amount of bets I win and lose.
If it looks to be good to be true, it probably is:
Vegas doesn’t make mistakes. No matter what you think you know or how big of a sports fan you might think you are whenever you see a line that makes you think “Wow that’s a gift,” stop what you’re doing, run to the window and immediately play the other side. I can’t even begin to imagine how many times I got burned taking a 10-3 team as a road favorite against a 3-10 team because I thought it was free money.
Don’t chase:
I could pay rent for a year with the amount of money I have thrown away chasing bets. I’d start off with Broncos -7, then make a live wager on Broncos -3 after they go down, then put even more on Broncos -7 2H down 7 because come on, Peyton Manning at home, no way he can lose right? Wrong. The next thing I know the Broncos lose and I am down three units instead of just one. While there are situations in which taking the favorite 2H when they are down or adding to your bet at a lower line is the right play, much more often than not the smart move is to simply throw in the towel on one bad bet instead of digging yourself a deeper hole.
Know who is playing and who isn’t:
Thanks Captain Obvious! Before you get snarky and dismiss this, I’ll have you know there have been multiple times when I have been suckered by Vegas into taking a team like the Spurs -4 when they play the Bobcats. I literally couldn’t get a bet down fast enough after seeing a line like that because I figured I was practically stealing. What I didn’t realize was that the Spurs were playing a B2B in the middle of an 8 game road trip and Tim, Tony, Manu and Splitter weren’t going to play. This pertains more to sports with a lengthy regular season schedule than it does the NFL or NCAAF but knowing which players will suit up and which will sit out is a gambling must.
Never set yourself up to be middled:
Captain Obvious strikes again! Quit laughing when you read this because there were numerous times when a game would start out poorly for my bet and I would panic and place a live wager on the other side that created a middle number or numbers that would cause me to lose both bets if they game landed on them (Ex: I held an over 211 ticket in a Thunder game but then took Under 209.5 live in the 1st quarter. Sure enough game landed 210 and I lost both). If you can’t create a middle for yourself or at worst take the opposite side of the original bet, THEN DON’T MAKE THE BET.
Don’t selectively tail:
In the era of Twitter I feel this is especially important to understand. So often I would see @HandsomeDan tweet out that he is on a 15-2 run in NCAAB and I would blindly tail his next 10 plays for double my normal bet amount. Next thing I know, ol’ Danny boy goes 2-8 because all his sides suffered late game breakdowns or backdoor covers and I end up down several hundred dollars. Every successful bettor will tell you that for every hot streak a cold one will inevitably follow, thus blindly betting on games because you see a tweet that someone is hot is a quick path to the poorhouse.
