Gambler’s Ruin
The casino billboards lining America’s roadways tantalize with the lure of riches. “Easy Street. It’s Only a Play Away,” screams one in Arizona. “$7.1 Million Every Day. We’re a Payout Machine,” reads another.
But how often do gamblers really win? What are the chances that a gambler will win on a single day or over a longer period? Don’t bother to ask the casinos. Although they gather vast quantities of data about their customers for marketing purposes, including win and loss tallies for many regulars, casinos keep such information a closely-guarded secret.
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Todd’s Take: There’s no disputing the addictive nature of gambling if you don’t take control of it. Even in sports where most of us think the individual has total control over his behavior, there is a compulsive element that some just can’t handle. Casino gambling is a sure fire way to erode your bankroll over time and should be viewed as a form of entertainment not revenue generating potential. The math behind every single casino game eventually leads to gamblers ruin meaning the longer you stay in action the more likely you are to have nothing left unless you’re cheating.
Short term wins are highly plausible, they keep people coming back to the casino. However the longer you stay in a seat the possibility of walking away a winner diminishes exponentially and it’s why every casino strives to impose length of play requirements on their customers before issuing lucrative discounts and comps. The shelf life for a whale (ultra high end gambler) is typically 5-7 years and after that point the bankroll just can’t withstand a beating. Sports are a slightly different animal than trying to beat the casino. Information, numbers, and an optimized bankroll can give you the edge you’ll never get over a roulette wheel no matter how “due” black is after 31 straight red spins. However betting sports should be viewed as a form of recreation, similar to golf, for most gamblers rather than a viable source of income. People need to set realistic expectations for their sports wagering based on the time they’re putting into their handicapping. Knowing what it takes to achieve long term success and tempering expectations give the casual bettor perspective.
I didn’t highlight this story to encourage people to become professional bettors but rather to illustrate there is a dark side to everything if we let the demons manifest themselves. Make good choices every time you place a bet never jeopardizing your finances, relationships, or job to bet games or penny slots: stay within yourself using good bankroll management or exit strategies as you deem fit and you can still walk away a winner rather than becoming another statistic.
