Reacting to Money Talks
Nearly 6 weeks ago I was extremely critical of CNBC’s decision to air a show called Money Talks highlighting the life and business of a handicapper named Steve Stevens. Last night, after weeks of build-up, the show finally debuted amid much fanfare in the sports betting community. While I wanted to hate it (I really did), I found myself fascinated by the portrayal of a business model that’s become nearly obsolete in the internet age and the presentation of his business as representative of an entire industry.
There were a number of things taken out of context as expected; it’s a reality show so we expected an emphasis on storytelling trumping accuracy. I’d like to think I’m pretty in tune with most of what goes on in the world of sports gambling. Whether it’s the limits casinos here in town feel comfortable taking, how the offshore industry works, or what handicappers sell reputable information worth buying, I can sniff out fabrication at nearly every turn. Until I saw the trailer for Money Talks I’d never heard of Steve Stevens. Even after watching the show, I clearly don’t believe in his business at VIP sports let alone his ability to turn consistent profits but you can bet he’ll have a laundry list of clients ready to purchase his product as of this morning. Go through the entire episode and losing bets that were actually given out to VIP Sports’ clients are plentiful even while not highlighted by the narrative. Obviously this will be lost on perspective buyers who didn’t notice that Stevens not only gave out the Ravens +4 but also the under 48 in the game.
However my criticism of the show isn’t in relation to Stevens involvement. He’s a businessman trying to make a buck, using the different media avenues presented to him to turn a degenerate sports gambler hell bent on making bets anyways into a client by selling a non-existent magical formula. Hell we all know the type; the handicapper that promises astronomical win percentages and returns on investment that would make EF Hutton jealous. Why do they market their services in such a manner? Simple; because no one wants to hear their “financial” advisers say we’re going to grind you out a 6% profit year over year yielding greater financial dividends than your slow growth mutual fund. Gamblers are in the sport for a score; their goal is to make money and they want to make it fast instead of listening to the cautionary sales pitch about hitting 55% by scalping WNBA totals on a Tuesday in July.
Sports gambling isn’t sexy most of the time. It’s a life of dedicating long hours to pouring over data, spread sheets, and reviewing game tape to make sure there wasn’t something missed in the Bethune Cookman vs Virginia Union game. A lot of what we all do to be successful oddsmakers or bettors is about building relationships with people we trust to share information. The nature of the business is simple; you’re only as good as the information you obtain and numbers you run meaning once those pipelines run dry, the relationships that were built over the years will too. Whether you’re selling picks or betting games yourself, the only thing people remember (friends, family, clients) is how you did last weekend. Sports betting markets are dynamic; the same handicapping techniques that produced winners 10 years ago don’t work now nor will the techniques we apply now work 5 years down the road. Guess what? Neither do the sales techniques employed by call center old school pick sellers either.
The Boiler Room call center we saw depicted on the show has a very “90’s” feel to it. At points I kept expecting to see Vin Diesel or Giovanni Ribisi in one of the cubes pushing shares of Farrowtech to clients knowing they’d collect $3 rips. In this case, it wasn’t Ribisi but rather a young aggressive salesman named Pirelli “financing the dream” in Vegas by selling air to his clients. I never worked in a call center selling products of any kind but the portrayal of this pick selling business model can be corroborated by conversations I’ve had with trusted sources in the field. For the salesman the goal was always to sell the dream; convince people you could turn a small pile of cash into millions by betting the games they were. Let’s not kid ourselves; any service that can deliver on such ludicrous promises doesn’t exist because they’d never need to go out and actively solicit new clients so aggressively. They’d keep their long term investors happy by achieving aggressive growth margins annually.
The show was right on a few points, the stock market is just as dangerous for an uninformed day trader as is the sports betting market. Everyone from the local grocer to the mailman has an opinion on the Monday night football game and will put down a few bucks just to make it interesting. For most bettors wagering on sports should be viewed as a hobby, no different than golf meaning if you lose a few bucks but have paid for 3 hours of entertainment, that’s all that matters. The show is 100% accurate when it references the Superbowl as an amateur event, notice they omitted mentions of props which provide the most lucrative opportunities for serious bettors. Money Talks also brushed on how limits are exponentially higher for the Superbowl given the excessive handle when compared to the NBA, CBB, or any other sport for that matter. Anyone who bets with a relative level of success soon realizes that sometimes when you’re too good at what you do the problem isn’t finding winners, it’s locating shops to take your action. Sports betting is a funny animal, a craft nearly every male (and most females) will dabble in at some point in their livesbut one only an elite few can come close to perfecting. We shouldn’t use a reality show on CNBC to provide us with a snapshot for an entire industry leading us to believe sports betting is all about sex, drugs, and extravagant lifestyles. Keep things in perspective when you watch the show because just like real life, TV has no intentions of letting the truth get in the way of a good story.
