Undervalued & Underrated
Whether it be setting a line or betting against the spread, week 1 poses a challenge to anyone trying to forecast the outcomes of NFL action. Team evaluations are grounded in last season’s performances, offseason changes, and trivial preseason competition; variables that are misleading when trying to predict the future.
But with every challenge comes an opportunity. Here is a trend dating back to 2002 that I believe highlights a market inefficiency in week 1 NFL point spreads: Non-playoff teams facing playoff teams from the previous season are a combined 46-29-1 (.613) ATS. In other words, this trend suggests that heading into a new season playoff teams from the previous year tend to be overvalued and non-playoff teams tend to be undervalued – especially when pitted against one another in week 1.
There are seven week 1 games where a 2012 playoff team is facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season. With the market’s tendency to misprice these games in mind, here are some brief thoughts on each of the contests.
“Fairly Valued”
Bears (-3) vs. Bengals: With the home team giving a field goal, I don’t view this matchup as a situation where the non-playoff team (Bears) is undervalued and/or the playoff team (Bengals) are overvalued. I think this line is fair.
Lions (-5) vs. Vikings: This line opened with the Lions favored by 2.5 points and has been bet all the way up to 5 (I even see some 6’s popping up). General consensus is very bullish on the Lions headed into 2013 and views the Vikings as a team destined for a bit of regression this season. At the current price, I believe most—if not all—of value that was to be had on the Lions has been bought up. If anything, if this line continues to march towards 6 or even 7, I would argue the love/hate sentiment towards these respective teams has gone too far.
Eagles (+3.5) at Redskins: The Eagles qualify for another profitable trend here (*Note- the Lions and Bills do as well): Teams are 368-308-23 (.541) ATS when facing a divisional opponent after that opponent beat them in both matchups the previous season. The Eagles fit the bill as a team that not only may be undervalued but is also seeking revenge over a division rival. That said, this line opened with the green birds getting 6 points, so where it stands now I’m not sure how much value remains. Trends aside, there are multiple question marks highlighting both these teams. How do the Eagles perform in their first game under Chip Kelly? How effective will RGIII be? These are just two variables of many that I believe are too ambitious to handicap accurately in this matchup.
“Ugly Dogs”
Bills (+9) vs. Patriots: After an offseason that was not too friendly to the Patriot’s receiving corps, I am reticent to bet against a fired up Bill Belichick and Tom Brady matched up against a rookie quarterback. There are some trends favoring the Bills here, however. In addition to our main trend and the divisional revenge angle, home underdogs of more than a touchdown are a combined 171-129-4 (.570) ATS dating back to 1989. Similar previous situations point to the Bills in this spot, but I think the next “ugly dog” presents more value at its current price.
Raiders (+9.5) at Colts: The Raiders stink! Whenever the collective perception of a team becomes extremely negative, bet on opportunities arise. I’m also not so sure the Colts deserve to be over a touchdown favorite against anyone. Last season, the Colts were favored at home four times and never once laid more than 4.5 points. Of the team’s 8 home games, the Colts won 6 by less than a touchdown (their big win was a week 17 victory over the Texans). I don’t care how bad the Raiders are perceived to be; this is still the NFL and this Colts team has no experience as favorites of this magnitude. I look Raiders here or pass.
“Potential Value”
Panthers (+3.5) vs. Seahawks: I fall into the trap too: I think back to the Seahawks second half surge in the Georgia Dome in last year’s playoffs and I could swear to you this is a team destined for a Super Bowl run. I would power rate the Seahawks as the best team in football, but this is the ideal situation where the previous year’s playoff team (Seahawks) may be overvalued and the team that missed the postseason (Panthers) may be undervalued. In addition, teams that were greater than 70% ATS in one season (Seahawks were 12-4 ATS in 2012) are a combined 71-84-4 (.458) ATS in the first six weeks of the following season. With most of the betting public backing the Seahawks in this contest, I’d be inclined to take the points.
Chargers (+3.5) vs. Texans: I echo a similar sentiment in this game. In addition, I will admit that I don’t have much of a read on the Chargers but needing a Matt Schuab led team to cover over a field goal on the road against a competent football team is asking a lot in my opinion. If you do like the Chargers here, I might wait; I envision money to continue to come in on the Texans as Monday night approaches pushing this line a bit higher.
