Tale of 2 Cities
The wheels of club soccer have begun to spin, transfer deadline day has come and gone, but soccer fans this weekend won’t have their eyes on the Barclays Premier League, La Liga, or Serie A. Instead, fans around the world will be tuned into the penultimate round of World Cup Qualifiers, cheering on their countries as teams look to seal the deal and punch their tickets to Brazil. While there will certainly be many great games across the globe worth analyzing and watching, the two most important (for obvious patriotic reasons) are the ones our USMNT will be playing. Both contests should be tough hard-fought matches but other than that you will be hard pressed to find any similarities between the upcoming US qualifiers against Costa Rica and Mexico. Before we delve into the differences between the matchups, lets first take a glance at the roster (with projected starters italicized) Jurgen Klinsmann has called up.
Goalkeepers: Tim Howard (Y), Brad Guzan, Nick Rimando
Defenders: DaMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, John Brooks, Geoff Cameron (Y), Edgar Castillo, Michael Parkhurst, Omar Gonzalez, Michael Orozco
Midfielders: Kyle Beckerman, Alejandro Bedoya, Michael Bradley (Y), Mix Diskerud, Fabian Johnson (Y), Jermaine Jones (Y), Graham Zusi,
Forwards: Landon Donovan, Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey (Y), Aron Johannsson, Eddie Johnson (Y)
Without a doubt, this is one of the most talented and deepest lineups our country has ever fielded. Combine the pace at which Jozy Altidore has been scoring goals with a revived Landon Donovan reuniting with Clint Demspey, and our players up front should cause havoc for any team’s back line. That being said, there are some things to worry about with this roster, and some tricky issues for Klinsmann to navigate. First, seven players are carrying yellow cards into these matches, who I have pointed out above by placing a (Y) next to their name. As you can see, there are a lot of big names facing a one-game suspension should they receive another card, so don’t be surprised if you see some of those players start one of these two games on the bench. Additionally, Klinsmann might have to leave Altidore out of the lineup due to a sore hamstring, and he will have to replace Brad Evans (sent home due to injury), who had become quite reliable as the starter at right back over the last few games. Expect to see utility man Geoff Cameron fill the void there, and while he is a talented and imposing presence on the field, don’t be surprised if you see some errors in the back due to the absence of Evans, especially during the team’s first game in hostile territory…
United States @ Costa Rica
Friday, September 6th; 10:00 P.M. EST
Estadio Nacional; San Jose, Costa Rica
3 Way: USA +200, Costa Rica +162, Draw +229; USA PK +107, Costa PK -122
The average U.S. sports fan will look at this fixture and think this should be an easy three points for the Yanks. After all, Jurgen’s team is on a streak for the ages, having won twelve straight games with big wins coming at home against Germany and on the road at Bosnia-Herzegovina. Hell, if the USMNT wins four more games, it will break the world record for consecutive games won by a national team, currently held by reigning World Cup champion Spain. But, the sobering reality is that history is not on the USMNT’s side when it plays in Costa Rica, and this is the most likely place for the streak to end. The last three times Sam’s Army has ventured down to Costa Rica for World Cup Qualifiers, it has been wiped off the pitch by Los Ticos to the tune of 3-1, 3-0, and 2-0. Based on recent history, one could argue that Costa Rica is the hardest place for the USMNT to play, not Estadio Azteca. Then you have the three words giving Los Ticos all the motivation in the world…”The Snow Game.” Costa Ricans could probably care less as to what we do in Syria, because the only thing that matters this week is avenging their 1-0 loss to the Yanks in the highly-controversial game played in March. Los Ticos have plenty of quality players throughout their squad, led by Fulham player Bryan Ruiz. In addition to having solid talent, this team has played extremely well as a unit of late, evidenced by the fact that they have not conceded a goal in their last 360+ minutes of World Cup Qualifying. While Jurgen’s boys have had a great run, they are in a terrible spot here, as there is just too much going in favor of Los Ticos.
Pick: Costa Rica 2-1
United States vs. Mexico
Columbus Crew Stadium; Columbus, Ohio
Tuesday, September 10th; 8:00 P.M. EST
Odds not currently posted (expected 3 way opener USA +100 / Mexico +220 / Draw +240), 2 way usa -.5, (+100) Mexico +.5 (-120) O/U 2.5
While the USMNT may play very poorly when they travel to Costa Rica, the exact opposite occurs when they play against Mexico in Columbus. Over the years, Columbus Crew Stadium has become the stadium of choice for the Yanks when they play El Tri, and for very good reason: the U.S. has never lost to Mexico there, beating them by a 2-0 margin in every qualifier. It is because of this that unique history of scorelines that the stadium is known by die-hard fans as the home of “Dos a Cero”, the trio of words that make a Mexico fan’s blood boil. Unlike other stadiums across the country, Columbus Crew Stadium is completely packed with red,white, and blue when the USMNT comes to town, and has given the U.S. a huge home-field advantage. Sam’s Army has been fantastic at home during World Cup Qualifying, having won every game without conceding a single goal. Contrast that with Mexico, who is in the dogfight of their lives for the final automatic CONCACAF qualifying bid, doing everything they can to avoid a playoff with Oceania champion New Zealand. There is unquestionably great individual talent in Mexico’s squad, but they have played well below standards as a unit, having only tallied three goals in six qualifiers. The most surprising part is that Mexico has failed to win or score at home in Estadio Azteca, which over the years has been a fortress for El Tri. Even if Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Co. get a win against Honduras on Friday, I can’t see them getting any kind of a result in Ohio given their recent form and history at Columbus Crew Stadium. Expect the USMNT to come out firing with the crowd at their back, knowing that three points here will secure a trip to Brazil.
Pick: USA 2-0 (If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it)
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