Start Anew
The dawn of a new EPL season is upon us and this could be the best ever as the only thing we can be certain of is the uncertainty that faces many of the sides this season. Managerial changes at the top end of the table should see this a much closer race for the title and coupled with increased parity from the mid table positions downwards we will be presented with plenty of opportunities to cash tickets through the course of the season.
As with any sport, opening day schedules present bettors with unique problems. With no current form to review we have a couple of options. Do we use the performance in pre season match ups as a tool to predict future performance? Do we use historic data from the teams’ performances to project forward? We all know that both are potentially flawed as who really cares if you win or lose friendly encounters and old data is exactly that, old data full of the problems use of such aged information presents.
So what can we use? Well how about he we use the books’ ability to manage those very same problems that we face to try and locate the value? How’s about that for an idea!
Over the last five seasons there have been 49 games played on the opening weekend (the anomaly is due to the postponement of Tottenham v Everton due to the London riots of summer 2011). The outright market favourite has gone just 24-25 in those fixtures and many of those wins were at very short prices. Eleven of those losses were at odds of shorter than even money so you must be guarded when siding with a favourite this first weekend. The statistics are trending towards it being more difficult for the books to price these games up. Over the last three seasons opening day favourites have gone just 11-18.
Assessing the progression of teams from one season to the next for those who have remained in the EPL for a number of seasons is difficult. A far easier data sample to utilize is monitoring how those fresh faced EPL newcomers fair in their first run outs in the big league. First day of the season for newly promoted sides is always a big occasion. You would expect them to raise their game and outperform usual levels of play due to the adrenaline and excitement running through them on such a big day. However, the historical statistics do not point to that especially on the road. Over the last 5 seasons the three newly promoted sides have a record of P15 W3 D2 L10
Now those games have been unevenly split as per below :
Home: Played 5, Win 2 Draw 1 Lose 2
Away: Played 10, Win 1 Draw 1 Lose 8
This year sees that uneven trend continue with two of the newcomers on the road for the first weekend. Crystal Palace are the lucky side who play on their home soil hosting Spurs. Hull City are on the road to Chelsea and Cardiff City travel to the capital to take on West Ham.
Looking at the overall historical trends you have to be vary wary of backing favourites this opening weekend of the season. Those statistics for the opening games for the newcomers do suggest though that some bets should be contemplated. Crystal Palace at any price over +250 should be looked at against a Spurs side who could be greatly affected by the Bale mess. West Ham host Cardiff and the price of just under even money on the home win given those stats against the newly promoted away side presents some value. Finally Chelsea always look to start the season strongly with their last five home openers seeing them score 4, 2, 6, 2 and 4 goals making that goal line of three look in danger from Chelsea themselves let alone with any assist from the visitors.
If you’re looking for more soccer stats from the lower English divisions, visit James’ website
