EPL Season Preview
England may have added a member to the Royal family this summer but the country will be without their King entering football season. After 27 years at the helm of Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure adds another level of intrigue to the already compelling 2013 season. Manchester United isn’t the only club atop the table with a change in manager. Co-favorites Chelsea and Manchester City will also enter this season with fresh faces on their respective benches. The uncertainty at the top of the league has all three sides listed at 11/5 to win the Premiership at the LVH, making for the most fascinating build-up to a season in recent memory.
While managerial changes may be settled already, there’s still much debate regarding where 3 of the league’s biggest stars will land. Gareth Bale, Wayne Rooney and Luis Suarez remain the subject of major transfer talk. Of the three, only Rooney doesn’t appear to factor into his current team’s plans because Manchester United possesses more than adequate depth to replace the now disgruntled superstar. Man U has held their ground that they won’t deal the English striker despite multiple bids from league rival Chelsea. Liverpool and Tottenham don’t have the same luxury as United when it comes to replacing top tier talent because losing Suarez and Bale respectively would end their seasons before they started. The byproduct of uncertainty is neither Liverpool nor Tottenham are taking substantial money in the futures market overseas.
The retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson will reduce the chances Manchester United has of retaining their league crown. After speaking to one of the most respected soccer oddsmakers in the UK, I came to find out industry pundits believe Man U will experience a 10 pt dropff in production without Ferguson calling the shots. That is not to say that new manager David Moyes won’t do a capable job however skepticism abounds after lackluster performances from Man U in Asia leading up the season. Given that Moyes has not brought fresh faces into the squad is a clear sign he has confidence to win with the current talent mix and is a large reason the Red Devils remain 11-5 here in the States to defend their Premiership title.
While many expected a change in leadership at Manchester United, the sacking of coach Roberto Mancini at Manchester City was a bit more perplexing. Amid a summer of massive change, it would have made sense to retain the leadership of the conservative Italian boss. City instead replaced him with Manuel Pellegrini, a man whose record is rather underwhelming to say the least. While at Real Madrid, Pellegrini criticized the policy of signing big stars to fit into the starting line up. Although he does not have that direct pressure at City to integrate big names right away, his coaching track record shows his best work is done molding lesser known talents into his system. The Sky Blues brought in big names Fernandinho (Shakhtar Donetsk) and Jesus Navas (Sevilla) to offset the loss of Carlos Tevez to Italian power Juventus. Pressure to produce is very real for this club after finishing 11 points short a year ago and there’s a good reason they’re priced at 11-5 to get back atop the table.
Chelsea welcomes back familiar face Jose Mourinho for a second spell at the helm of the West London club as they look to reclaim elite status. Mourinho has a squad filled with exciting and talented youngsters who he’ll look to mesh with the strong English characters on the roster like Cahill, Lampard, Terry. With such diverse talents Mourinho has the player mix to win every possible club competition he’ll encounter; equipped to win with flair, outplaying teams off the park, or they can beat them into submission with outright brute force and determination. Chelsea has seen their price in the European futures market drop from a high of 9-2 all the way to their current price of 5-2.
The biggest battle for Andreas Villas-Boas and Spurs this off season was their attempt to land a big name to pair alongside Gareth Bale; Valencia striker Roberto Soldado came to the rescue garnering the highest recorded transfer free in club history. Remaining a credible force at the top of the table now hinges squarely on the fight to retain the skills of the Welsh striker at White Hart Lane. You won’t hear a collective sigh of relief from Spurs backers until Tottenham officially fends off the advances of Real Madrid for their most coveted commodity. Spurs have a very strong starting side but at times their limited depth can be questioned and will probably be a team to bet against regularly as the season progresses. Right now they look to be the 6th best side in the league and their price at 25-1 feels a bit short. They’ll likely be in the mix all year for a Champions League Birth but a Premiership title doesn’t seem plausible.
Summer was the time when fans were promised the cobwebs would be dusted off the check book at Emirates. Problem being, Arsenal fans must have missed that magical day this offseason because all those marquee signings never happened. Yes, there was a touch of irony considering they did so well to finish fourth last season given a relatively brittle squad. Amazingly their lack of player movement hasn’t stopped a steady flow of cash coming in on the side with the current price of 10-1 a far cry from the initial opener of 20-1. Arsenal’s pattern of play and the relentless belief in the clubs players shown by coach Wenger always keeps them in the mix for Champions League inclusion. Much like Tottenham, a domestic league title seems far fetched. Arsenal lacks true world class talent and it’s difficult to see them finishing any higher than fourth this upcoming season.
Liverpool has made great strides under Brendan Rodgers but the key to their season hinges on the ability to retain the fiery Luis Suarez. Not only is he important to their style of play but he’s also essential to their image as a high profile club. If they sell the ubber talented Uruguayan (despite his on and off field issues), it’s a clear signal of intent that they are not a serious candidate for a top four finish. The only way to handicap Liverpool is taking a wait and see approach until we know the starting 11 they’ll field this weekend. The current market price for them to win the Premiership is 25-1 and doesn’t offer nearly enough value for me to even consider backing.
The above clubs will fill the top six in some order but from there down it appears wide open. The other 14 teams in the league find themselves placed in 3 distinct tiers
Outsiders – Everton, Fulham, Swansea, West Brom
Possibles – Cardiff, Southampton, Stoke, Sunderland, West Ham
Relegation Zone – Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Hull, Norwich, Newcastle
My preseason value team to watch: Cardiff City. I have a feeling the newly minted Premier League side will be a money maker for bettors early and often.
The play: When in doubt, go back to old faithful in the form of Chelsea. Something about the team’s overall depth along with the return of a familiar manager has me believing they’re the futures bet worth making for the 2013/14 season.
American to watch: Jozy Altidore. The talented striker makes his transition from the Dutch side Az Alkmaar to Sunderland. Last year he scored 26 goals for his domestic club across all competitions and it will be interesting to see if his game translates smoothly to the EPL. He’ll have to do it under the leadership of Italian boss Paolo Di Canio, who enters his first full season as manager and has antics worth the price of admission
Golden Boot: It would be easy to go with 2 time defending champion Robin Van Persie but here are my players that are worth a small investment in the prop market:
Pick: Gareth Bale (Tottenham) 14-1…if he stays with the club, the addition of Soldado will only help the Welshman have another great season.
Value play: Edin Dzeko (Manchester City) 25-1…14 goals despite only starting 16 games. The club’s change in leadership will create more chances for the talented striker.
Longshot: Demba Ba (Chelsea) 40-1…Only injuries will derail the talented French striker from putting together a tremendous season for the club I believe takes home top billing this year.
