PGA Championship
2013 PGA Championship: Glory’s Last Shot
Though Phil Mickelson claimed the British Open just 17 days ago, another major is quickly upon us as Oak Hill plays host to the 95th PGA Championship starting Thursday. While it’s often seen as the fourth major in terms of importance or personality, the PGA arguably boasts the year’s best field and has provided no shortage of drama over the past few years.
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Key Factors
Though it serves as one of golf’s more venerable layouts, Oak Hill has not been encountered by many of the players in this week’s field prior to this week. It last hosted the PGA Championship in 2003, when longshot Shaun Micheel held on for what remains his lone PGA Tour victory (Oakhill also hosted the U.S. Amateur in 1998). Here are two keys to the Donald Ross layout:
Total Driving: This PGA Tour stat combines both driving distance and driving accuracy, both of which will be imperative this week in Rochester. At 7,163 yards, this par-70 course has more than a handful of lengthy holes, notably the 17th and 18th holes, a pair of par-4s that measure 509 yards and 497 yards respectively. So while distance off the tee will be needed to contend, accuracy will be even more important. According to player and media reports, the rough this week is some of the toughest encountered all year, outside of perhaps the U.S. Open. Missed fairways could result in wedges back to the short stuff and accurate driving will be rewarded.
Scrambling: While the rough along Oak Hill’s fairways will be penal, the thick stuff around the greens is just brutal. Players will need to control their distances into the greens, as missing greens (particularly above the hole) is more often than not an automatic bogey. While each player will miss his fair share of greens this week, an advantage will be held by those who are able to get up-and-down with high frequency.
What About Tiger?
Coming off a 7-shot rout at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Woods is listed as a prohibitive favorite across the board for a good reason (current prices 4-1). He’s won five times this year, leads the PGA Tour in scoring average and has spent much of 2013 showing signs of the Tiger of old. If you haven’t grabbed a TW ticket yet, though, you’re certainly getting the worst of the number at this point which is not exactly a good pattern to follow. Furthermore, consider that par-70 layouts are not Tiger’s favorites in major championships: he has more missed cuts (3) than majors won (2) on par-70 courses, as Woods only has two par-5s each day to take advantage of, rather than the typical rotation of four per day. So while he carries into this week an incredible amount of momentum, his win is far from a sure thing. As I’ve said in this space before, a sound strategy for those who still haven’t gotten down on Tiger would be to wait until after Thursday’s opening round hoping an opportunity presents itself to grab him at an improved price than what you’ll find pre-tournament.
Contenders
While Woods is a clear favorite, there are a few dozen players who enter this week with a very real chance to take home the Wanamaker Trophy. Here’s a look at a few that are topping my list (all odds from LVH, courtesy @golfodds):
Henrik Stenson (30/1): The Swede won the Players Championship in 2009, got to the top five of the world rankings, then promptly fell off the map. He’s back this year with a vengeance, though, and his torrid last month included a runner-up at the British Open as well as a tie for second behind Woods last week in Akron. Stenson is second on the PGA Tour in GIR percentage, fourth in total driving, seventh in scoring average and carries with him a significant amount of momentum…an ideal recipe for a player who could certainly contend down the stretch this weekend.
Hunter Mahan (30/1): Mahan is making his first start since he left the RBC Canadian Open with a two-shot lead through 36 holes, opting to withdraw to be with his wife for the birth of their first child. When he’s played, he’s played well; in addition to amassing a lead in Canada, Mahan was in the final group on Sunday at both the U.S. Open and British Open and has 12 top-25 finishes in just 20 starts this year. He’s been perpetually in contention this year and at ninth on Tour in total driving possesses the ball-striking to be in the mix again this week at Oak Hill.
Keegan Bradley (30/1): The PGA champion two years ago, Bradley tied for third in defense of his title last year at Kiawah Island. He also tied for second last week at Firestone on the heels of a T-15 showing at the British Open and clearly seems to play some of his best golf in August. One of the longest drivers on Tour, Bradley also finds his fair share of fairways, ranking third in total driving and third in the all-around ranking. Bradley is playing with Tiger each of the first two days; while that could be a deterrent to backing certain players, I think Bradley will use it as motivation and perform well as a result.
Sleepers
The top players have short odds for a reason, but there is nothing more satisfying than pulling a needle from the haystack and boasting a winning ticket with long odds on Sunday. Here are three players from the pack that may be worth consideration:
Zach Johnson (40/1): The 2013 season was largely a disappointment for the former Masters champ entering July, but he’s turned things around quickly with a trio of top-six finishes. After losing a playoff at the John Deere Classic, Johnson tied for sixth at Muirfield and tied for fourth last week at Firestone. Always a consistent player tee-to-green, he’s finally gotten his putter to heat up and the finishes have improved dramatically as a result. He’s not the longest player off the tee, but he will find more fairways than most.
Bill Haas (50/1): Haas notched his ninth top-10 finish of the year last week in Akron, the most of any player this year on the PGA Tour. A winner of the FedEx Cup two years ago, Haas also won last month’s AT&T National but has struggled on the game’s biggest stages this summer, missing the cut at the Players, U.S. Open and British Open. Still, he possesses the pedigree and overall ball-striking to make a run this week, as he ranks 12th in GIR percentage and 15th in the all-around.
Jordan Spieth (100/1): Spieth just turned 20 last week but has already taken the PGA Tour by storm. He won the John Deere Classic last month, becoming the youngest player in more than 80 years to win on Tour in the process, and currently sits in the top 15 on the season-long FedEx Cup points race. Spieth began the year with no status on any major tour but now is eligible on the big circuit through 2015 thanks to his strong play this year. He has thrived on a variety of golf courses and (as is the case with most 20-year-olds) does not flinch when staring down the game’s best players. Likely refreshed after two weeks off, Spieth could be a player to keep an eye on this week.
Fade Material
While every player expects to play well, there are bound to be some clunkers this week. Here are a few players I’ll look to oppose in H2H matchups:
Rory McIlroy (30/1): This week’s defending champion, McIlroy won by eight shots a year ago in South Carolina but at this point is a shadow of his former self. While he certainly possesses the raw talent to contend in any given week, McIlroy simply hasn’t demonstrated the control of his ball throughout much of this season and, perhaps more importantly, appears lost mentally. I’m not convinced he can keep his ball out of the thick rough and would be less surprised by a missed cut than by a top 10 this week in Rochester.
Graeme McDowell (50/1): McDowell made headlines earlier this summer for a stretch of eight starts that included three wins and five missed cuts, the true definition of feast or famine. Recently though it’s been more famine than feast, as McDowell’s tie for 40th last week at Firestone was his best PGA Tour finish since winning the RBC Heritage in April. McDowell’s accuracy off the tee will be an asset, but his approaches this season have been increasingly more errant, as he has dipped from 67th in GIR percentage last year to 153rd in 2013, also dropping in the all-around ranking from 43rd to 129th. He could be a player to look at for a potential “missed cut” prop.
Billy Horschel (100/1): One of the game’s most emotional players, Horschel wears them on his sleeve and while he was the hottest player in golf in March and April, he’s cooled considerably since the U.S. Open. Horschel missed the cut at the British Open and was near the bottom of the pack at Firestone before a Sunday 66. When he has it going, Horschel is one of the best in the business, but at this point he still lets the bad shots affect his state of mind more than most. I can certainly see the frustration building for him this week along Oak Hill’s tree-lined fairways.
The season’s final major is always a fun one to watch, and hopefully you can pick up a few units along the way. A little profit can go a long way in coping with the realization that come Monday, we’ll be eight months away from the next major championship.
