Totally out of sync
When it comes to NFL totals, the casual bettor is generally more inclined to wager on the over than they are the under. This information is neither groundbreaking nor surprising, as football fans are programmed to root for scoring. To bet an under is to go against human nature, with those who wade into the hopefully low scoring waters cursing every running back and receiver who dashes out of bounds and stops the clock. Many of us have developed our own approach to tracking under bets. Personally, I divide the game into 12, 5-minute intervals while continuously performing shoddy arithmetic to make sure my bet is on or close to a winning pace. Needless to say, I’m an absolute blast to be around in these aforementioned circumstances.
But as we’ve discussed time and time again, the betting public—yeah, that’s the same betting public that prefers to back overs—is rarely successful turning a profit wagering on sports over the long haul. Sure, it’s more than possible to produce a highly successful week or even a very profitable month. But over the course of the five-month NFL season, continuously supporting overs will more than likely yield a negative result.
With the start of the 2013 season just under two months away, let’s take a look at how NFL totals have played out over the last ten years in just Week 1. But before we get to the data, here’s a quick look at how NFL scoring has been on the rise since 2003. That must mean overs are hitting at a more consistent rate than unders, right? Actually…
Todd’s Take: Betting sports is all about identifying opportunity, gaining that half step over the oddsmakers before they catch up to you. Joe’s piece highlights some profound trends regarding totals and sportsbook’s unwillingness to go high enough right out of the gates. We make so much about the O/U trend itself but the key is figuring out what range offers the most value. This will sound dumb but there’s a lot to be said about avoiding unders on totals “too low” or going over totals that are “too high.” Clearly the book has reasons for setting the market where they do but the information they use can be often be based on perception as much as fact when there’s large amounts of public money influencing the pools. For most, totals remain that black box for the creating more confusion than profit yielding opportunities if not handled correctly. Explore the trends, understand the figures, and you can find a bet tyoe that represents money making opportunities as a smaller part of the traditional betting markets.
