Motivation
When competition reaches it’s highest levels, any edge—no matter how small—can have a significant influence on the outcome of a sporting event. Even in the league where teams only play a 16-game schedule, discrepancies in motivation are evident and have an impact on the final score of NFL contests. For those of us who are concerned with the ultimate margin of victory, this can make all the difference.
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Rivalries, past performance, and a myriad of scheduling factors cause a team’s effort and focus to fluctuate from week to week. The point is: Over the course of a season, matchups arise where one team is more motivated to win than its opponent. Identifying such situations and investing in these teams when the market fails to account for psychological intangibles can be profitable.
Here are three trends that capture situations where a team has a motivational edge. Notice these are far from guaranteed; just general trends that have proved to be long-term winners over a fairly large sample size. Data goes back to 1989 and is courtesy of KillerSports.com.
- Underdogs that are coming off back to back losses of 14 or more points are 158-129-9 (.551) ATS.
- Fading a road favorite in a non-conference matchup that is facing a divisional opponent the following week is 110-89-5 (.553) ATS.
- Teams are 368-308-23 (.541) ATS when facing a divisional opponent after that opponent beat them in both matchups the previous season.
Such success over large sample sizes indicates that the market is slightly inefficient when accounting for discrepancies in motivation and also tends to overreact to recent poor performances. It’s important to remember, however, that each individual matchup is unique and it would be imprudent to blindly follow these trends. For example, in week two the Denver Broncos travel to the Meadowlands to face the New York Giants. The team is forecasted to be a small road favorite and faces a divisional opponent, the Oakland Raiders, the following week. The Broncos certainly qualify for the second successful trend above but something tells me Peyton Manning and company will get up for this game.
That said, here are a couple early season matchups where I do envision an imbalance in motivation between the two teams.
- Week 1, Eagles +4.5 at Redskins: Philadelphia dropped both contests against the Redskins in 2012, closing out the season 1-9 as they watched their NFC East rivals capture the division title. The Eagles are a talented team and many players remain on the roster from the team’s 2008-2010 playoff campaigns. I expect the team under new head coach Chip Kelly to give max effort in this matchup as it seeks revenge over Washington.
- Week 4, Giants -1.5 at Chiefs: After a difficult string of opponents to start the season (Dallas, Denver, and Carolina) and with divisional rival Philadelphia on the horizon, New York may take their foot off the gas a bit in this matchup with Kansas City. In contrast, the Chiefs should not get caught looking ahead to the Titans in Week 5. I expect Andy Reid to have his troops geared up to play against his old rival in front of a strong Arrowhead crowd.
Looking at the 2013 schedule, have you identified any matchups where one side may have a psychological edge? Hit me up on twitter as I am always looking to further the conversation.
