No place like home
Which of the following wins was worth more:
October 21, 2012 at Gillette Stadium: New England 29, New York Jets 26
October 24, 2011 at EverBank Field: Jacksonville 12, Baltimore 7
The answer is a tie, as both victories were worth exactly one win. But if we were to rephrase the question and ask which win was more impressive, the result would bring an entirely different answer altogether. The Patriots came significantly short of covering the 11-point spread in the team’s three-point win over the 3-3 Jets, while the Jaguars posted a five-point victory as 10-point underdogs over the 4-1 Baltimore Ravens. Using the Las Vegas point spread as our key factor, Jacksonville’s win would be deemed more impressive.
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Todd’s Take: As Joe highlights in his article, we don’t care about wins and losses in the desert: only covers. Through a back and forth dialogue between Joe and myself we struggled to figure out which statistic was more indicative of dominance: avg margin of cover or ATS W/L record. Upon further review I’ll contend domination doesn’t rely on the margin of victory but rather overall record. Yes, the Ravens +11.7 margin looks tremendous but their record of 3 games over .500 is not nearly as impressive as Seattle’s home dominance. However, playing at home in the role of underdog is much different than that of a favorite and we see that reflected in both team’s avg spread. I personally believe the biggest takeaway from Joe’s findings is the ability to identify teams that exceed expectations at home regularly only to disappoint on the road. The name of the game in sports betting is buy low, sell high and more often than not, the team that buries the number one week regresses to the mean the next. So much of what happens in the NFL is versed in perception and the public is quick to forget that a team’s performance in their building doesn’t typically go out on the highway with them. The other trend that’s hard to ignore given Joe’s research is that the good teams cover at home while the bad teams don’t. It serves to further illustrate teams don’t all deserve the requisite 2.5-3 pts for home field because even as home dogs, they’re dogs with fleas not worth backing with any regularity.
