Sound Logic
Posted by Todd on Jul 3, 2013 in Soccer
Grant Wahl took the opportunity to interview a soccer tipster from the UK named George Dempsey. It’s not so much the article itself that peaked my interest (we hear supposed success stories about pro bettors all the time) but rather a keen observation Wahl made about sports in general and it’s interconnectedness with gambling.
I started out this tale with a simple question: Is there anyone out there that makes genuine money betting on Major League Soccer?
It’s an important question for any league that wants to make it in America. Whether you advocate gambling or not, the betting industry — legal and otherwise — is a huge factor in the success of the NFL, international soccer and plenty of other sports around the world.
Until I started working on this piece, I had never met anyone who bet on MLS games. Granted, I’m not a gambler, but I was still curious. Who out there is betting on the U.S. soccer league? And does MLS’s single-entity system and tight salary cap (read: institutionalized parity) make it even harder to make money betting on games?
Todd’s Take: Wahl’s second paragraph hits the story out of the park, answering the most important question of all. He directly ties the popularity of sports to gambling and the resulting increase in fan interest that comes from pervasive betting (are you listening Roger Goodell???). Ratings are a byproduct of fan involvement which of course is stimulated by emotional and financial interest. Now, financial involvement can stem from fantasy sports, pools, or a laundry list of other possibilities but the root of it all is gambling drives popularity. I know others commenting on the article yesterday took a much different point of view from the context, electing to gauge how successful Dempsey really is betting the sport but I see that as an afterthought. Dempsey’s approach to beating what he deems to be an inefficient market is no different than those who look to the WNBA and Arena to pay their bills rather than the NFL and NBA. Oddsmakers will openly admit they dont commit the resources or time to sharpening lines for niche sports. You’re better served as a betting house to keep limits low minimizing risk, letting the talented bookmakers focus on the big revenue generators which for soccer is the EPL obviously over MLS. Dempsey has a skill he’s keen on honing (his level of success I can’t and won’t vouch for because I don’t know) yet his thought process should resonate with every bettor: find a league you understand better than the people setting the numbers and the money train should never stop.
