Wimbledon Preview
Wimbledon is less than 24 hours away and this week we’re going to look at market moves for the top contenders over the course of this season. The ideal for any bettor is to strike a bet when the price is at its highest point and hopefully seeing that bet increase in value as the price drops closer to the start of the respective tournament. We’ll take a look at why prices have moved at certain points to give a better understanding of how to approach futures markets in tennis at the Grand Slam level going forward.
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Novak Djokovic
Jan 1: 11/4 Now: 5/4 High: 11/4 (Jan 1)
The world number one’s price for Wimbledon remained fairly consistent for much of the first six months of the season (a starting high of 11/4) but that price has now nose dived (5/4 now) after a favourable draw. There was no way of being able to be sure that Djokovic’s price would drop to this extent since there was a 50/50 chance that Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could land in his half. In the end Djokovic’s best case scenario became a reality with Nadal and Federer landing in the bottom half meaning he’ll only have to beat one of Andy Murray, Nadal or Federer to win the title and may even not have to face any of them. Djokovic’s price would just have easily swung in the opposite direction had Nadal and Federer ended up in the top half of the draw.
Andy Murray
Jan 1: 3/1 Now: 4/1 High: 9/2 (mid-June)
Like Djokovic, Murray’s price has remained fairly consistent throughout the season until he picked up a back injury just before the French Open. Having been 3/1 and 7/2 for much of the season Murray’s price went out to a high of 9/2 as he was forced to miss the French Open. However, the reports were never as alarming to suggest he might miss Wimbledon and so that period was always likely to be the best time to jump on Murray’s price. Since the French Open he returned to win Queen’s which was good preparation and a confidence boost ahead of Wimbledon. His price has settled at 4/1.
Rafael Nadal
Jan 1: 4/1 Now: 5/1 High: 7/1 (late-Jan & mid-Mar)
Nadal’s price movements were always likely to be the most interesting and volatile of the “big four” in men’s tennis due to the uncertainty of how he’d be able to perform on his return to the tour. The Spaniard began the year at 4/1 but it didn’t take long for his price to increase 75% up to 7/1 once it was announced he would miss the Australian Open. Once Nadal did return to the tour his price steadily and consistently dropped as he won tournament after tournament. You’ll notice an abnormal jump in the price graph in mid-March where Nadal’s price shoots back up to 7/1 only to drop again instantly. This was likely because of a technical or production error with a particular bookmaker and not due to an intended opposing of Nadal’s price.
In the build-up to the French Open Nadal’s price continues to drop and does so again after winning the title at Roland Garros. You may ask why winning the French Open should drop his price for Wimbledon? The answer is public perception. Winning the French Open on clay doesn’t bear too much relevance to whether a player will experience success on the grass of Wimbledon, but the bookmakers will look to drop the price in anticipation of bandwagon money coming in. Nadal’s price has now settled at 5/1 having been priced up as a favourite to win his quarter which includes Federer. The time to strike on Nadal was clearly before he made his official return to the tour after skipping the Australian Open. This was a move most would have been able to see coming since success for Nadal on clay in the months before was hardly unlikely. His price was always going to drop from the high of 7/1 barring further injury.
Roger Federer
Jan 1: 5/1 Now: 10/1 High: 10/1 (Now)
The biggest value loser since the start of the season is clearly Federer. The defending Wimbledon champion’s price has doubled since January 1st. Anyone backing Federer at 5/1 has seen that bet depreciate in value as each month has passed. It wasn’t until Halle in the build-up for Wimbledon that Federer won his first title of the season and his task at Wimbledon has been made as difficult as can be with the likelihood he’ll have to beat Nadal, Murray and Djokovic back to back to back to defend his title. The draw was unkind to Federer but his form hasn’t been much to write home about either and he enters Wimbledon at his biggest price since before he won his first title there in 2003.
WOMEN
Serena Williams
Jan 1: 7/4 Now: 4/9 High: 7/4 (Jan 1)
It took a long while for Serena Williams’s price to start dropping from a starting point of 7/4 but once it did it has now become virtually untouchable at 4/9. Williams didn’t win the Australian Open as expected and so her price remained consistent but since mid-May the push on the American has been evident and she dipped below EVS for Wimbledon during the French Open. The draw has helped her out even further – not that she needed the help – with all three of her biggest rivals on paper being drawn in the opposite half. If you had backed Williams at 7/4 at the start of the season you’re now in a strong position to either ride that value out or to lock in a profit by laying (opposing) her price.
Maria Sharapova
Jan 1: 6/1 Now: 15/2 High: 15/2 (Now)
With the Williams price dropping like a stone and her three biggest rivals on paper being drawn in the opposite half it’s not a surprise that all three of those players now have their prices at the highest point of the season. Sharapova’s price dipped back to her yearly starting price during her run to the French Open final but has swiftly risen while Williams’s price continued to be hammered down.
Victoria Azarenka
Jan 1: 6/1 Now: 9/1 High: 9/1 (Now)
From late January to early March, Azarenka’s price was unsurprisingly at its lowest point having defended her Australian Open title and beating Williams to win the title in Doha. Clay is Azarenka’s least productive surface so it was entirely expected her Wimbledon price would drift during the clay court part of the season. As with Sharapova, Azarenka’s price is now at its highest point and she may have to face Petra Kvitova, Sharapova and Williams to win her first Wimbledon title.
Petra Kvitova
Jan 1: 6/1 Now: 28/1 High: 28/1 (Now)
Of the four main contenders in the women’s draw Kvitova is clearly the most inconsistent of the bunch and so ups and downs in her pricing are par for the course. Perhaps more than any other player on tour the gap between her ceiling and basement in terms of performance is greater than any other. She is capable of wiping players off court or wiping herself off court in no time at all. Even during much of a season where Kvitova has struggled to find any rhythm or form, her Wimbledon price didn’t deviate too much – until now. Since the start of June her price has rocketed and having been handed the most difficult path to the title of the top four contenders her price is now at a massive 28/1. If you had backed Kvitova at 6/1 at the start of the year there will be few bets that have depreciated in value to that extent at Grand Slam level where injury wasn’t involved.
