Brazil vs Italy: Betting Preview

The final games of Group A will be played simultaneously on Saturday at 3:00 PM EST, though only one game truly matters as Japan and Mexico have already been eliminated.  With both Brazil and Italy tied atop the group at six points, the outcome of this game (aka the loser) will determine who faces Spain in the semi-finals.  As things stand right now, Brazil would win the group because of their superior goal differential.  Thus, the scenarios are easily apparent: Brazil can win the group with a draw or win, while Italy must beat Brazil to win the group and avoid a semi-final match against Spain.

Because it must beat Brazil to win the group, some might think that Italy is going to throw caution to the wind in order to come out victorious.  After conceding three times to Japan though, the Azzurri’s attentions have to be directed to their back line.  Italy is known for it’s defensive soccer, and I expect their entire focus to be on turning out a strong defensive effort against the host nation.  Remember, Italy is the nation that birthed Catenaccio, and is more prone to winning games 1-0 than 4-3. Expect to see the Italians lay back and absorb Brazil’s attack for most of the game, then break on the counter quickly when they gain possession.  Not having Andrea Pirlo on the pitch, who is out with a calf injury, will definitely affect Italy’s ability to possess the ball, and create attacking chances.   Unless Brazil gets a lead early on, don’t expect to see a Pirlo-less Italy recklessly throwing numbers up the pitch until late in the game.

On the other side of the pitch, Brazil only needs a draw to win the group and face the runner-up of Group B, which will most likely be Uruguay.  With there being no need to press the issue against Italy, expect to see the Brazilians possess the ball with some caution, as they won’t want to leave themselves exposed to the Italian counter-attack when they give up the ball.  Couple that approach with a back four that hasn’t conceded a goal yet in the tournament, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game.

Prediction:  Based on the scenarios in play, this game screams DRAW to me.  The host nation’s number one goal for this game has to be keeping Italy from finding the back of the net, as it guarantees Brazil winning the group.  With both teams also putting defense as a priority for this game, you have to think this will be a low-scoring affair that is decided by no more than a goal.