SHARP Football Analysis
Typical of sharp money, much of it came on underdogs. As you can see, the wiseguys were betting Iowa, Arkansas, Boston College, TCU, Auburn and Colorado the most ppg, and these teams opened, on average, as +14 ppg dogs, favored in just a handful of games in total.
TCU was bet “on” in 6 games, faded in 0. Auburn was bet “on” in 5 games, faded in 0. Other teams receiving no adverse betting action (with at least 3 games being bet in their favor) were Iowa, Colorado and California. Arizona State and Michigan were bet “on” in 5 games, and faded in just 1.
The strongest underdog that the wiseguys supported was Arizona State. ASU opened at pick or and underdog in 5 of their 10 games. And in EVERY SINGLE game ASU was a pick or dog, the wiseguys bet them, moving those 5 games a total of 6.5 points in ASU’s favor.
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- Iowa was TERRIBLE 4-8 SU/3-8 ATS in 2012, but wiseguy $ LOVES them in 2013: not once fading Hawkeyes, moving line FOR them most of any team.
- FAVORITE wiseguys liked the most? TCU. (Bet “on” 6 games, faded 0). DOG wiseguys liked most? Arizona St (Bet “on” 100% when not favored).
- Despite going 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS as dogs last year, wiseguys LOVE Arizona State when not favs in 2013: In 5 games lined dog, BET ON ALL 5 x’s.
- Despite going 7-6 SU & 5-8 ATS in 2012, wiseguys LOVE TCU in 2013: sharp $ moved TCU lines in 6 of 9 games in their favor, NEVER faded them.
- FAVORITE wiseguys faded the most? Texas A&M, favored in 5 games, bet against in 3. DOGs wiseguys faded? Florida St, Oklahoma, Boise St.
- Johnny Football/Texas A&M dominated 2012 (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS, upset Bama). But wiseguy $ has FADED A&M in 2013, NOT ONCE backing the Aggies.
- Florida St went 12-2 SU/5-9 ATS in 2012, and wiseguys are FADING FSU in 2013: betting $ AGAINST them: faded 5x, including both x when dogs.
- DOGS wiseguys loved? Arizona St, Iowa, Michigan, Auburn, TCU, Arkansas. In 33 games lined as DOGs, they were NEVER faded & bet ON 23 times.
- FAVORITES wiseguys hated? Northwestern, Arizona, Texas A&M & Mich St. In 22 games as FAVS, sharp $ faded them 14 times & NEVER supported.
- Arizona went 8-5 SU and won their bowl game, but wiseguys HATE them in 2013: NOT ONCE betting on Arizona, they faded the Wildcats in 6 times
- Northwestern had FAIRY TALE 2012, (best ATS team). But wiseguys HATE NW in 2013: faded them 5 of 6 times inc 3.5 pts in 1 gm (largest move)!
- Top 25 teams supported most? TCU, Michigan, Florida. Top 25 teams faded most? Northwestern, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida St, Oklahoma.
Todd’s Take: Warren does an outstanding job using what the market tells him to draw conclusions on how the professionals view the early college football landscape in 2013. It’s always worth looking for those “bet on teams” and “bet against sides” as you go through summer preparation trying to establish power numbers, always comparing oddsmakers expectations along with mainstream publications. Keep in mind situations where the pros only bet on teams as dogs instead of all their games doesn’t convey the same level of support and confidence as laying points 3+ months before games will be played. Remember when you look at game of the year lines, the majority of sharp money will come in on the underdogs unless a favorite is grossly underpriced. Much line win totals, to lay points and lock up money in advance is a leap of faith that nothing negative will happen to a given side between now and kickoff such as suspensions, injuries, etc. Make sure you use all the tools at your disposal to prepare for the season and Warren’s analysis of the Golden Nugget openers is extremely valuable The full chart included in his post is worth its weight in gold to monitor the first wave of moves and keep in mind the lines will be updated throughout the summer here.
For another interesting perspective and takeaway drawn from the GOY lines, I encourage people to read this post from Jeff Fogle as well.
