Belmont Preview
Frac Daddy – Loved what this horse did as a 2YO, but hasn’t carried his form over to his 3YO campaign. Showed some promise in the Arkansas Derby, and was regarded by some as a live longshot at Churchill Downs. Turned in a real stinker there though, beaten 24 lengths in the slop. Feel like that one is an easy toss-out, and that he could sitting on a big race after the five-week layoff. Have huge respect for trainer Kenny McPeek, and will be using him on a few tickets.
Freedom Child –Figures to be overbet after a runaway triumph over a sloppy track in the Peter Pan 4 weeks ago. That win was aided by first time Lasix; was that the wake-up call he needed? I’m skeptical, based on a pretty average form prior. Not going to completely his dismiss his chances at stringing back-to-back big races together, but just don’t think he is going to offer fair value at the wagering windows.
Overanalyze –Hearing a lot of chatter about this one from folks I respect, but that same chatter was coming during Derby Week as well. Captured the Arkansas Derby two races back, a race I’ve dismissed as painfully slow — did Oxbow’s Preakness change my thinking on that? Where Overanalyze is concerned, the answer is a steadfast no. Just don’t see him making much of an impact in this race.
Giant Finish – I gave this one absolutely no shot in the Kentucky Derby, and he split the field in 10th place at 39-1. Has worked steadily for this return, but can think of nothing that could convince me that anything has changed in the past five weeks.
Orb – Ah, what do we make of the Derby winner, The Next Big Thing, the lock to win at Pimlico? Really tough to know what to make of his chances here, and I’m actually surprised to see him in the field. At his absolute best, he is probably head and shoulders above anybody in this field, but I find it a very dubious proposition that he is even close to being at his best right now. Have a feeling that he’s facing a similar pace scenario to what he saw in Baltimore, and I don’t think that bodes well for his chances here. I have great respect for his connections, and he is a talented animal, but I just don’t like his chances to win this race.
Incognito – This beautifully-bred colt looked to be coming along nicely in the spring, but showed absolutely nothing in the slop in the Peter Pan. Is certainly eligible for a major improvement here, but again faces the spectre of a very wet track. Will probably pick up some checks this summer, but think he’s a notch below the best of this crew.
Oxbow – My worry here is that I’m getting to the party one race late, but I can’t help but think that this race again sets up perfectly for him. I didn’t think a lot of his chances at Pimlico, but in hindsight I missed some tell-tale signs. Has been heavily campaigned, and that probably doesn’t bode well for the long-term, but in the short-term, he could be sitting on another big race. It’s the kind of scenario that Wayne Lukas used to excel in regularly, and I think he’s going to excel again here.
Midnight Taboo – No thanks.
Revolutionary –Clearly the biggest threat to dethrone either Orb or Oxbow. Ran a nice third in the Derby, but my biddies at Thoro-Graph, say it looked much better than it was. I’m not quite sure how much I agree with that, but there may be something to it. Nevertheless, he’s been nothing but consistent, and it’s silly to think that he’s not going to put forth a solid effort here. Would not be the least bit surprised to see him win, and I think he’s likely to finish in the top four, even with a subpar effort. Your call, given that he will probably be an underlay.
Will Take Charge –Was somewhat of a “wise-guy” horse in Baltimore, based on an excuse-filled Derby trip. Fact is, he probably has already peaked, and isn’t as good as most of these. Can’t recommend at all.
Vyjack – Somewhat of an interesting horse in this spot, and will offer a nice price. Hadn’t done much wrong until he bled in the Wood Memorial, and then the Derby…an absolute fiasco in which he finished 52 lengths behind Orb. Think you can completely throw that race out. Problem is, I just don’t think he’s well-suited for the 1 ½ mile Belmont; I would have much preferred to see him in the 7-furlong Woody Stephens on the undercard. Not a complete toss for me, but leaning against.
Palace Malice – Still don’t understand why he was gunned to the lead in the Derby, but that completely compromised his chances. Has a good buzz about him, as the blinkers are coming off for this one, and a completely different running style is anticipated. Could be sitting on a nice race, but he has a lot of lengths to make up against some of these, and I’m not certain he’s good enough to do so. Would watch the toteboard on this one.
Unlimited Budget – The filly is the major wild-card in this field. Ran a nice third in the Kentucky Oaks, and Todd Pletcher is inclined to give her a shot against the boys. Mylute’s defection from the Triple Crown trail, allowing Pletcher to grab Rosie Napravnik for the mount. A filly on the filly will certainly be a popular betting angle, but how good is she really? She’s good enough to be ultra-competitive with these at her best, but my main question is, can she handle the distance? Was a huge fan of her daddy, Street Sense, but overall, her pedigree does not look to me to be sufficient for this distance. She will have to beat me in this one.
Golden Soul –Figures to catch a lot of action based off closing for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby at the robust price of 34-1. These are the kinds of horses who are often over-hyped for the Belmont, inasmuch as there is some sort of myth that the Belmont is a closer’s race. Closers can fare well here, sure; but the race is won on the front-end just as often. My personal take on this guy is that even with a five-week layoff, he’s an extremely likely candidate for a bounce, and I’m not expecting him to do much more than possibly pass some tiring horses in the stretch.
AND THE WINNER IS –I’m going with Oxbow. I think he’s going to get another favorable pace scenario, and I also think he’s just improved to the point that he’s one of the two or three best horse in the field. The Preakness was no fluke. I think Revolutionary is his biggest challenge. I like Frac Daddy as the longshot with the best shot at supercharging the exotic payouts. Obviously, Orb can’t be totally dismissed either. The picks are 7-9-1-5-2.
** EDITOR’S NOTE: Special thanks to Jay for all his hard work throughout Triple Crown season. He’s truly a well respected contributor for the ponies and we hope to continue sharing his work on these fine pages for every major horse racing weekend.
