Value on the Bump
It happens every summer; pitchers burst onto the scene and catch bookmakers by surprise. Unlike other sports where adjustments can be made overnight, the value created for baseball bettors from a no name starter can sustain value for extended stretches. However, a third of the way into the season there are very few unknowns meaning books are onto those hot arms (and the cold ones). The name of the game in every sport is knowing how long to ride a team right before the price becomes prohibitive and there’s no greater example than starting pitchers in MLB. With the calendar hitting June, here are my guys to watch from an overvalued and undervalued standpoint from now into the Allstar break.
OVERVALUED:
Patrick Corbin: I hated putting him on this list because I’m a big believer in this mini-Kershaw’s raw talent. However when your team is 10-0 in your starts yielding over 1 unit per start on average for bettors, you’re bound to regress and start costing your backers money. We saw some of that in his last start against the Padres where Corbin finally looked human. I don’t think you’ll get rich betting against him for the long term but for the next 5 weeks expect him to be grossly overvalued.
Pirates Arms (Rodriguez, Locke, Gomez): This is as much a reaction to the team as a whole as it is to the three guys named here. The Pirates are typically undervalued by books every night and these three pitchers have benefited at least as far as bettors are concerned. None of this trio has true ace stuff like AJ Burnett and it’s kept their price down early in the year. Simple reality, what goes up must come down and these arms aren’t the kind of talents I’d feel comfortable laying prices with if the Pirates sustain their high level of play. Let’s also not forget a major component of these guys financial success for bettors has been a lockdown bullpen cleaning up everyone’s mess when needed.
Jordan Zimmermann: Again, putting him on this list much like Corbin comes with some trepidation. Zimm is a good pitcher but he’s not elite to keep getting priced the way he is. As temperatures raise in the capital region, Jordan’s inability to strike batters out consistently gets dicey if his control suffers. Along with his tremendous start are my bullpen concerns regarding the Nationals and you have the perfect recipe of a go against arm.
Tyler Chatwood: Not sure he’s ever been valued by bettors let alone enough to warrant my overvalued tag in this spot. The former Angels farmhand has led Colorado to a 4-1 record in the games he starts this year. The most impressive part of this run? He’s done it 4x as a dog. I don’t think you’ll see books do too much with his numbers but if they think bettors are willing to lay chalk with Tyler Chatwood, get those wallets ready to fade away
Other arms to keep an eye on moving forward: Hyun Jin Ryu, Zach McCallister, Scott Feldman, Mike Leake
UNDERVALUED:
James Shields: Life as a Royal has not been so rosy for James Shields so far. Kansas City is now 3-8 in games started by Big Games James although most of the blame shouldn’t fall on his shoulders. Outside of his start on May 27, he’d surrendered a grand total of 8 runs through 5 starts with the Royals compiling a pathetic 1-4 mark. This team will start to hit and when they do, Shields will be the beneficiary if he keeps limiting opponents to 3 ER or less every time he toes the bump.
Cole Hamels: Ok, this isn’t really a reach to put the former ace on this undervalued list given he’s been busting wallets all year long especially amid his current 6 game losing skid. The Phillies are now 1-11 in games he’s started this year and blame for the atrocious record falls both on Cole and his offense. To make Cole a value play moving forward books will need to adjust his prices way down like they’ve been doing. If they opt to hang tags based on name recognition, this potentially undervalued elite arm might still fall in the stay away category.
Other arms to keep an eye on moving forward: Bud Norris, Jon Niese, Yovani Gallardo
