Preakness Preview
Before we delve into this year’s Preakness (an incredibly small field of nine horses), I wanted to take a minute to look back at my Derby handicapping. I feel pretty good about my analysis, even in spite of saying this about Orb:
Orb was the one Itsmyluckyday was chasing, and has earned Derby favoritism off of that effort. He had a monster workout on Monday, which has everybody proclaiming him the next big thing. Look, I think he’s a super horse, and very capable of winning this race, that close to a race of this distance (and stature). I don’t think he wins this one now
That said, I still had Orb tabbed as the third choice. In fact, my top three selections ran 5th-3rd-1st. Not too bad for a maze like the Derby. As for my top selection, Mylute, he’s back for another crack in Baltimore, and you’ll see what I think of his prospects below.
Horses are listed and analyzed of my preference from worst to first:
Titletown Five (M/L 30-1): There are nine horses in this year’s Preakness, and I think, given the right setup and circumstances, there are eight who are capable of winning without it being viewed as earth-shaking shocking. Then there is Titletown Five. This horse seems to be yet another example of D. Wayne Lukas not wanting to be left out of the party. A winner of just 1 of 7 lifetime races, he looks significantly over-matched against this field. Was incapable of even hitting the board last out in the Derby Trial. Probably contributes to a fast early pace, but has zero chance to win this race.
Itsmyluckyday (M/L 10-1): I liked this guy a bit in the Derby, but he ran a very dull and disappointing 15th place, beaten by 22 ¼ lengths. Apparently trainer Eddie Plesa feels like the race took nothing out of him, as he was more than willing to wheel him back in two weeks for this one. Gets a major jockey upgrade to John Velazquez, but other than that, I’m having a hard time finding any reason to believe that his prospects are improved in Baltimore, as he appears to be a horse that is significantly regressing. He was bet down to 9-1 in the Derby, and I’d want a bit higher than that here before I even considered putting any cash on him.
Oxbow (M/L 15-1): Some handicappers who I respect quite a bit are backing Oxbow in this spot, so I gave him an even closer look that I thought was merited. However, I am still arriving at the same conclusion — I think he’s going to a major part of the pace, but when the real running starts, I think he’ll run out of gas just as he did in the Derby. Jockey Gary Stevens said that at the turn for home in Kentucky, he thought he had the race won. I’m curious what he’ll say after this one, when the exact same thing happens.
Goldencents (M/L 8-1): Certainly has to be considered the biggest disappointment of the Kentucky Derby. Just did not fire at all, and earned a laughably low 32 Beyer for his effort (or lack thereof). Doug O’Neill wasted no time saying that he was Preakness-bound, so he seems very willing to put that fiasco behind him. I feel pretty much the same about his chances here, as I did in the Derby— if he is able to make the lead, and keep the fractions reasonable, then he has a shot to lead this field wire-to-wire. The makeup of the field, however, suggests to me that this is an unlikely scenario.
Will Take Charge (M/L 12-1): He’s certainly generated a lot of talk for a horse that ran 8th in the Derby at odds of 36-1. This is attributable to the fact that he looked full of run near the head of the stretch, and ran into a rapidly retreating Verrazano and suddenly was left with nowhere to go. It’s hard to say what would have happened had he been left with a clear path, but we will never know. He did look impressive enough that I’m less concerned about the distance limitations I had earlier perceived. I still worry he’s not good enough to win over this field, but I believe he is a strong candidate to hit the board. Still, I like others better.
Governor Charlie (M/L 12-1): A lightly-raced intriguing little colt, isn’t he? Trained by one of the most successful trainers in this race’s history, Bob Baffert, he hasn’t run since romping over a questionable field in the Sunland Derby in March. Baffert was hesitant to run him in Kentucky, and waited until the last minute to confirm his start here. His 95 Beyer in the Sunland certainly fits him here for a major piece, but the question is he just too unseasoned? Additionally, he’s another that looks like will need to be on the front end. He represents the unknown factor, and new shooters commonly hit the board in Baltimore. That said, of the horses who didn’t run in Kentucky, I like one better.
Departing (M/L 6-1): Was last seen romping over the Illinois Derby field on April 20, earning a 93 Beyer in the process. Prior to that, was third in the Louisiana Derby, a race that the 1st, 2nd, and 4th place finishers all finished in the top 5 in Louisville. Has to be majorly respected, and has the running style that looks like the winning style for this race. Of course, so do my top two selections as well. If he is sitting on a big race, he looks more than capable of a big finish. Not going to recommend him for the win, but I think he hits the board.
Mylute (M/L 5-1): What of my top Derby selection? I’m not jumping off the bandwagon just yet, that’s for sure. Finished a deceivingly strong 5th, and in my opinion did not get the greatest of rides from Rosie Napravnik. I thought she waited far too long to get involved in the race, and given how he was going at the end of the race, I suspect he may have been the 2nd best horse that day. Nobody was beating Orb…and nobody may beat Orb on Saturday, but I am firmly convinced that Mylute offers the strongest challenge. If Rosie can get the jump on Joel Rosario, she just might be the first female jockey to win a Preakness. Were if not for Orb looking like a monster, I wouldn’t hesitate to make him my top choice again. But…
Orb (M/L Even): Orb does indeed look like a monster. What a strong performance in the Kentucky Derby, and has now won five races in a row, each more impressive than the last. Shug McGaughey has this horse firing on absolutely every cylinder, and beating him looks like it may take a Herculean effort. Drew the one post, which is 1 for the last 42 in the Preakness, but I don’t think it’s going to have any negative effect whatsoever. At this point, he looks far and away like the best colt of his generation. There is certainly the chance that he could just not fire and bounce off of his previous efforts, but I wouldn’t bet on it? Would you? I am not convinced that Orb will complete the Triple Crown in three weeks (we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it), but I think his chances to win the Preakness are very, very strong. My heart says Mylute —and indeed the tote board may dictate that my money goes on Mylute — but my head and every other part of my body says Orb.
