Wager Metrics
Written by Oddsmaker Adam (follow him on twitter)
Adam is a seasoned oddsmaker down in the islands managing shops both in the Caribbean and Dominican Republic. Each week he’ll fill us in on his findings as he tests an ongoing baseball experiment during the 2013 season.
WagerMetrics is an experiment which is currently in its first year of public testing. WM’s is a way of betting on baseball that relies on the human element and not statistics. Each documented player is given an emotional profile and projections are made based on his body language and secondary emotional responses. Emotion levels are put into numbers which are then converted into prices. Each player is worth a specific amount to his team as a whole. His price fluctuates based on performance in relation to his emotional profile. These prices are added up to give a team a base value. Based on changing prices and projections, these prices change and are converted into betting lines. These lines display spots of value and suggest where wagers should be made.
They say “People lie, numbers wont.”
I disagree.
Current Team Values:
Los Angeles Dodgers – $470.72 (+4.72)
San Francisco Giants $436.38 (+18.38)
Arizona Diamondbacks $375.42 (+17.42)
Colorado Rockies $344.43 (-0.57)
San Diego Padres $268.20 (+4.20)
Division Overview
Going into the weekend four of the five teams have positive values, and are playing above their expectations. The entire division is currently worth $1895.15, its highest price to date. The Dodgers make up the most value at 24.85% while the Padres make up the least at 14.1%. While the division as a whole is up in value, the parity level has not increased. Win loss records may indicate a big gap in talent, the WagerMetrics do not.
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs
Thursday April 11th – Sunday April 14th
This is a four game series for the Giants and first time outside of sunny California in the month of April. While the players have become acclimated to winning over the past ten days, they have also become acclimated to the weather. Comfort levels are 9/10 or greater for major contributors Pagan, Pence and Posey. These numbers are in serious jeopardy as the average temperature for the series lies in the mid to low 40’s. It won’t be hard to spot the discomfort in the faces and body language of the Giants players this weekend.
Confidence levels are also 8/10 or better for 7 of the 8 starting position players. The only one not keeping up is Scutaro. Noonan, worth just $2 of the team’s $436 price tag will take the place of Scutaro, for at least the series opener. His first major league start at second base will bring the teams anxiety levels up the slightest amount.
This series does not set up well for the Giants to increase their stock price. I believe this price falls down considerably from the $18.38 mark they have coming in. I think that the most considerable drop happens on Thursday. The Giants highest offshore betting price will be on Friday. Both days providing a ton of value.
While I project a big decrease in comfort levels in the first half of the series at Wrigley, watching for anxiety and apprehension, especially at the plate where confidence levels are so high will be important. Unfamiliarity and uneasiness should become a factor as well considering how different playing in Illinois is from California this time of year.
I believe the Cubs get a split this series at worst, and will prove to be a good bet at plus money all four games.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday April 12th –Sunday April 14th
This three game weekend series is the first meeting of the division opponents. This series also marks the end of a home stand for Arizona and the end of a road swing for LA. Keep this classic situational spot in mind for Sunday. If this proves to be a competitive series, you typically see the one team just wanting to get home, and the one team wanting to make the most of it before they take to the road. In baseball this is a common play up vs. play down spot.
Before Sunday comes, there of course are games on Friday and Saturday. The Dodgers will come into this series right around their base value of $466. The Diamondbacks come in considerably above their base value and fresh off a day of rest. While the day of rest typically brings the emotions of joy and elation down, the level of excitement will keep levels of confidence and focus up.
I expect major value to show up on the WagerMetrics conversion chart this weekend for Arizona. The Diamondbacks are playing at a level about as high as we can expect all season. The Dodgers start with the top of their rotation Friday against the latter part of Arizona’s. While the Dodgers line-up is right around their base price, their rotation is well above.
Kershaw, Ryu and Beckett are all valued at least 10% higher than their base price. Confidence, comfort and focus levels are all 9/10 or better. There is not a single negative emotion level above average.
However, I believe against sold out crowds and a team playing contagious baseball, the Dodgers could find themselves relying too heavily on their starting pitching. I believe without the crutch they have used all season, they will find themselves in an unfamiliar spot and not know how to react.
I won’t be surprised if the negative emotions come on fast and strong this weekend for LA.
Ride along with Arizona this weekend for a series win.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Friday April 12th –Sunday April 14th
The two WagerMetrics cellar dwellers meet for a three game set at Petco Park.
The Rockies have plummeted back down from earth after being up $17.50 going into the San Francisco series. The Rockies are now the only team in the division with a price in the red. I believe that will be remain the case until Sunday.
The Padres are going to prove to be one of the better value bets all year in baseball, but this weekend, I would look away. They have been hanging right above their base price of $264 all season and have never played good enough to go higher than $268 and never played poorly enough to go below $261. For the first time this weekend, I believe this team will take a fall below the average.
Friday is the only day which sets up well for those backing the Padres. They will enter the game on an emotional high after a strong series, which possibly resulted in a win against Los Angeles. Regardless of how the game goes Thursday evening, the Padres will have every player inside their lineup in positive WagerMetric numbers, playing above their base value.
Friday should offer the Padres at a discount price. Saturday and Sunday, I see the market flipping and offering big value on the Rockies. This is because In the entire NL West, only three players have positive secondary emotions off of a negative trigger. Troy Tulowitzki is one of them. Currently he is sitting at a total value of $54.50, slightly below his base value of $55. However, his frustration level currently sits at a 9, and his anger level sits at 8. I expect both of those to peak come Saturday. This means big outbursts for Tulowitzki on the weekend. When Tulo goes, the Rockies go. After a four game hiatus, the Rockies bats should make a return Saturday against Volquez. While the Padres fall down, the Rockies will go up, and should take the momentum Saturday with them through the finale on Sunday.
Padres take round one, but the weekend will belong to the Rockies.
