Around the EPL
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
First things first on a busy EPL weekend of games: A big welcome back to the baseball season and my over-riding thought (bar will my New York Mets get to seventy wins) is how do you MLB cappers do it? Doing stats work like this every single day would put me into early retirement! Anyway, moving on and my snapshot roundup has proved popular previously so below are my brief thoughts on each weekend match up.
Reading v Southampton
New Reading boss Nigel Adkins hosts his former club for a must win game for Reading. Like women, managers are at their most dangerous when scorned. Southampton isn’t a great team and Adkins knows every chink in their armour as he personally recruited the majority of their roster. Reading are 2-3-2 at home to teams in the bottom half of the EPL whilst the Saints are 2-3-2 on the road to teams in the bottom half of the table. The stats say this will be an evenly fought game so a tricky game from a betting perspective. In view of the ‘Adkins Revenge’ scenario bets should be leaned in favour of the home team.
Norwich v Swansea
On paper this is to be the dullest game of the week. A functional hard working Norwich side entertain a Swansea side who appear to have gone on their summer holidays already. Norwich have a decent record against sides placed in the top half of the table as they are 3-2-3 at Carrow Road against such opposition. Researching deeper though throws up a stat that could make this a cracker of a game. All three EPL meetings of the sides have cashed an over 3.5 ticket with Norwich registering three wins; 3-1 last season at home and 4-3 and 3-2 on the road. Over 2.5 goals is the call here.
Stoke v Aston Villa
Stoke are 3-3-1 at home to sides residing in the bottom half of the EPL. 6 of the teams 9 EPL meetings have been draws with the last 4 seeing the honours split and all hitting an under 2.5 ticket. Aston Villa have won just one of the nine games and they do have the
capability to win this game. However, playing Stoke requires discipline. Villa have shown nothing to me that shows they can
defend in a manner throughout 90 minutes that would stop Stoke from scoring in the game. Villa have the potential to score but against a tough home side I cannot trust them. At odds against the home win looks very appealing.
West Brom v Arsenal
5 of the last 6 EPL games at the Hawthornes have gone over 2.5 goals but with the line set at 3 this game offers zero betting value.
Liverpool v West Ham
As a stat geek this game turned me on so much, almost to the point of orgasm! Liverpool are 5-2-1 at home to bottom half teams and have conceded just 4 goals. West Ham are 0-1-6 away to the top half and have scored just 3 goals. 6 of the last 7 home games at Anfield have gone over 2.5 with Liverpool scoring at least twice in 5 of their last 6 home games. With no Andy Carroll for the visitors due to the terms of his loan agreement with Liverpool, the home side should destroy the Hammers. Back Liverpool -1.5
Tottenham v Everton
Traditionally Everton had an excellent record against Spurs but times are changing as the balance of power in this rivalry is shifting. There has not been an away win when these teams meet in the last 8 games. Goal distribution has been fairly random with it going 6-4 in favour of under 2.5 goals in the last 10 meetings. If you want to bet here then you should probably look at markets that favour a home side victory.
Chelsea v Sunderland
The legend that is Di Canio takes over at Sunderland. Is he mental? Possibly. The only thing more mental is he thought that you could bet on this game. I have no idea what impact he will have but I suspect in the short term it will lead to an upturn in the fortunes for the Black Cats. However, the long term ramifications of his appointment are a different issue completely. No Bet.
Newcastle v Fulham
Goals in this game have been pretty random as the last three games has seen an over 2.5 goal ticket cash. The three previous games between them all went under 2.5 goals. Newcastle has won just one of the last seven meetings of the sides and are 4-3-3 at home to Fulham in their EPL meetings. However, the home side is 5-1-2 at home to bottom half sides while Fulham have managed just one win in eight on the road to sides in the lower reaches of the EPL table. Value here is with the home win.
QPR v Wigan
A quick glance at the EPL table tells you that realistically QPR cannot afford to draw this game. In no way does that suggest they
can have the luxury of a loss either though as they are drinking in the last chance saloon from here until the end of the year. Everything will be thrown at the away side as QPR seek the three elusive points that would give them a slim hope of staying up. Wigan are 3-1-3 on the road to sides in the lower half of the table so they are used to winning on the road, an unusual trait for an EPL struggler. Despite there being no away win in the three meetings of the sides in the EPL, I see the value with the away win here. Not a game to a bet on though at least for me.
