North London Derby
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
This Sunday White Hart Lane stages one of the most significant North London derbies for many a year. Neither side has any hope of catching Manchester United at the top of the EPL but it is a game where the loser of sees their Champions League qualification hopes diminish. It could also be a powerful indicator as to a potential shift in power between these two London giants. Tottenham have not finished above their local rivals since the 1994-95 season but they come into this game above the Gunners and more importantly in much better recent form. It may be surprising to learn that despite such recent dominance, Arsenal does not have a great record at White Hart Lane. Only four wins in their last twenty EPL visits does not do justice to the stranglehold they have maintained over Spurs.
If the match result is hard to figure out here, the way the game pans out may be slightly easier to predict. Action, excitement and plenty of goals certainly look like they’re on the agenda at White Hart Lane this Sunday. The last seven meetings between the two sides has seen at least three goals and both sides have found the net in twenty two of the last twenty eight EPL meetings. Only Chelsea have scored more than once as visitors at White Hart Lane this season which would suggest the home side have a strong defence. However, they have kept just seven clean sheets in their 27 EPL games this season. Arsenal has fared slightly better on a defensive front keeping nine clean sheets in twenty seven matches but only twice in the last nine games.
An approach the match, I like to use in certain situations where teams seem evenly matched is to lay the starting line ups down and compare them, unit by unit. This helps me visualize who will dominate in what areas of the pitch and try and try to give a sense of how the game will pan it in front of us. Although we are not exactly sure of the line ups, we have a rough idea…
Goalkeeper – a clear advantage to Tottenham here with Loris in excellent form and Szczesny looking like an accident waiting to happen
Full backs – probably around even here if the impressive Monreal starts at left back for Arsenal
Central Defence – Tottenham edge this with any of their partnerships they care to pick
Midfield – Wilshere is the clear star man in this battle but the lack of mobility of his comrades may just give an edge to Tottenham. The influence and dynamism of Wilshere though cannot be underestimated
Supporting striker – Gareth Bale will be almost unstoppable
Striker – at White Hart Lane I will side with Spurs and Adebayor putting in a shift to rub it in against his former employers
Manager – the experience of Wenger gives the away side the advantage. Both managers have been accused of pre planned substitutions so their in game adjustments may be a key component in this game.
Verdict – At the current market prices I feel the value lies with the over 2.5-3 goal line at around 1.88 especially given the strong trend towards goals. I expected the goal line to be set at three so this quarter goal is a bonus, I like this bet a lot. On the outright market it’s a tough game to call as history often repeats itself. In this case a defeat or draw for Arsenal will follow history but in the table terms it will probably signify they fall behind Spurs, a shift from the historical. If in doubt you should probably side with the draw in what should be an exciting and frenetic beginning to your Sunday morning stateside.
