EPL Round-Up
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
Saturday
Fulham v Stoke
Traditionally Fulham has been strong at home but this season they’ve been victorious in just 5 of 13 EPL games. Stoke has traditionally been poor on the road and this season that’s at least held true to form. With just 1 win on their travels you cannot back the away win under any circumstance. It’s 7-2 in favour of the under 2.5 goal line and despite winning 1 of their 4 trips to Craven Cottage, Stoke have only scored two goals on Fulham soil. Expect a home win here.
Arsenal v Aston Villa
The sky appears to be falling in at The Emirates for the reign of Arsene Wenger. The Frenchman vows to continue though this funk and this weekend they should (I say should), pick up all three points against a poor Villa side. If you are expecting goals you may be disappointed as only 2 of the last 13 meetings between the sides has seen an over 3 line on the goals market cash. The -1.5 handicap for the home side should be covered as they look to bounce back but I suggest it with no real confidence.
Norwich v Everton
These sides have met three times in the last eighteen months in the EPL. All three games have been scoring draws, with two 1-1’s and a 2-2. This season Norwich have drawn 5 of 13 at home and Everton have drawn 6 of 13 on the road. The odds of around 3.5 for the draw do look very attractive as I feel both sides would see a point gained from this fixture as an acceptable return. Draw.
QPR v Manchester United
QPR are awful and Manchester United are the Champions elect so I am surprised to see a handicap line of just -1 on United. I imagine this line is due to the tightness of the home backline since Harry Redknapp took over. However, Rangers have scored just 8 times at home in 13 EPL starts and in the three recent EPL meetings United have covered a -1.5 line on each occasion. Back United -1 on the handicap market.
Reading v Wigan
This is a relegation battle of the highest order in Berkshire this Saturday. Despite their lowly position Reading has only lost 3 of 13 EPL home games this season whilst Wigan has lost 8 of 13 on the road. The pick’em line has Reading slightly favoured so if you can get your money back on the draw then that’s a great bet. Remember, Wigan will view avoiding defeat on the road to a rival as a good result and Reading will see a draw maintaining their two point gap over Wigan.
West Brom v Sunderland
This may come as a surprise but this is the game I am most looking forward to this weekend, well from a betting perspective anyway! The home side are 7-2-4 at The Hawthornes whilst Sunderland are 3-4-6 on the road. Nothing too special so far from those statistics I grant you. Drilling down deeper though you find the real value. The teams have met 7 times in the EPL since December 2008 and those matches have gone 6-1 in favour of the over 2.5 goal line and 5-2 on an over 3.5 goal line. Back over 2.5 goals and the over 3.5 goal line that certain books offer at a price must be looked upon as a great value anywhere around a 3.5 price.
Sunday
Man City v Chelsea
Sometimes you just have to hold your hands up as an analyst and a bettor and say “I honestly don’t know”. This is where I am with this game as I am not sure which team will show up for either side. City has won the last three meetings of the sides at The Etihad but before that Chelsea had an excellent record there. The last 14 meetings of the sides has seen 7-7 under/over 2.5 goals so even the goals appear random. A classic case of a game just to be enjoyed and any bets placed should be considered purely fun bets.
Newcastle v Southampton
Southampton controversially sacked their manager a couple of months ago but they have steadily accumulated points since that decision. However, the price on this home win in my opinion is greatly assisted by the recent win for Southampton against Man City. City were as awful as Southampton were good and Newcastle narrowly lost out at Tottenham last time out. The home fans have a new hero in striker Moussa Sissoko so I sense a very loud St James Park crowd will roar them to victory. At odds against the home side are the value here, home win.
Monday
West Ham v Tottenham Hotspur
The home side are a strong 6-4-3 at home this season and those losses were only against Arsenal, Everton and Liverpool. Tottenham is 7-2-4 on their travels with an average of over 3 goals in those games. History suggests that this game will be low scoring with the last 7 meetings going 5-2 in favour of the under 2.5 goals. I will suggest though that this game bucks that trend and suggest going for goals a plenty. Back over 2.5 goals.
Best Bets
Over 2.5 goals West Brom v Sunderland
Manchester United -1
Reading at ‘Pick Em’
