Around the EPL 2/9
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
Who needs a thousand words of analysis per game when you can get all you need in small bite sized chunks! Here we go with a quick EPL round up for this Saturday’s fixtures to help you get your individual and parlay bets down with confidence.
Tottenham v Newcastle
Tottenham goes into this game having seen all of their last four games go under 2.5 goals. The loss of key striker Defoe is a big blow for them and they are too short a price for this game. Newcastle will look to sit back and deny the space in behind the defence that quick attackers Bale and Lennon thrive on. I sense the home side may be vulnerable here with no outright forward and Newcastle possess a beast of a striker in recently purchased Moussa Sissoko. Take Newcastle either on the handicap or as a straight up dog as the value bet in this fixture.
Chelsea v Wigan
Wigan has only ever beaten Chelsea once in twelve EPL meetings never winning at Stamford Bridge. Plenty of goals look to be in the offing here as Chelsea has scored at least twice in their last five games and Wigan has scored twice in their last three games. Time may be running out for interim Blues boss Benitez. However, the home side has experienced veterans that will not allow them to slip up in this fixture. Value here is with the home side on the handicap and over on the goal line.
Norwich v Fulham
The three EPL meetings between these two sides over this and last season has yet to yield a Norwich victory. The meeting earlier in the season in West London was a 1-1 draw so I believe Fulham will avoid defeat here. However, with just two wins in twelve on the road you cannot really trust them to get all three points at a relatively short price. Value is with the under 2.5 goals and the draw in the match market.
Stoke v Reading
Trend analysis is something that I pay particular attention to these days in the EPL. Reading has not kept a clean sheet on their travels all season and just three in their twenty five EPL fixtures. The home side are just so well organised at both ends of the pitch and they have a work ethic/team unity that is rarely found. Stoke has not been in the best of form this season but they are the value here. In fact the resurgence of Reading of late creates a better price than you could have hoped for a few weeks ago. Home win.
Sunderland v Arsenal
These two managers are not the best of friends as Arsene Wenger is not a particular fan of Martin O’Neills antics on the sideline. Sunderland frustrated the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium in August and I see similar tactics adopted here. O’Neill is confident enough in his own position to send out a defensively minded team even for a home game. They will sit off and look to frustrate Arsenal as they look to repeat a defensive performance that has seen them keep clean sheets in four of their last five home fixtures. Take Sunderland on the handicap and if you can find a goal line of 3 go with the under.
Swansea v QPR
Swansea won the reverse fixture 5-0 at Loftus Road back in August and the home side will be confident of winning this meeting. Harry Redknapp has tightened Rangers’ defence up in recent weeks with all of their last five games going under 2.5 goals and four of which going under 1.5 goals. The recent signing of massive defender Samba can only go to shore them up further so I like the under 2.5 goal line here. If recent signing Remy is fit for QPR then they may be worth siding with in the handicap market. If not, then any value has to be with the home win.
Southampton v Man City
These two teams started the season with goals raining in left, right and centre. Their meeting on the opening day ended 3-2 to Man City with the defending champions coming back from a 2-1 deficit. However, recent coaching changes at Southampton and the defensive nature of coach Mancini at City points toward a lower scoring encounter this weekend. The last eight away games for City have gone 6-2 in favour of under 2.5 goals and all of the last seven home games for the Saints has seen an under 2.5 goal ticket cash. With City out of the title race,we all know they are whatever they say, their squad may just throw the towel in. With the home side fighting like mad to escape relegation, could they pull of a shock? I think they could but the safer bet would be side with the home side on the handicap. If you can find a goal line of three then the under is definitely the bet to make.
As always please feel free to hit me up with any thoughts or EPL related questions.
Have a great weekend folks and enjoy the games.
