Prop Fix
Written by Justin Zovas
The market has hammered the side and total lines into place for well over a week now and most, if not all, of the value has been sucked out of these numbers. Thankfully for us bettors and NFL enthusiasts alike, the Super Bowl presents a multitude of diverse options to wager on. Here are three propositions I like this Sunday.
Ray Lewis solo + assisted tackles o/u 11.5.
Pick: Under 11.5 (-110)
Reasoning: In his career, Ray Lewis has averaged 9.1 combined solo + assisted tackles per game. At 9.5 tackles per game this season, his 2012 numbers have remained consistent with his career. In his past three postseason games, however, Lewis has produced the following tackle numbers; 13, 17, 14. Parlay these recent three straight above average performances with the appeal for the average bettor to bet overs, and the result is line inflation. Replace Ray Lewis’ name with random linebacker X, and this number is right around 9 where it should be.
First team to make a field goal.
Pick: 49ers convert a field goal first (-110)
Reasoning: Put simply, the 49ers offense loves to settle for field goals and the Ravens defense thrives at forcing its opponent into field goal attempts. David Akers led the league with 42 field goal attempts this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens allowed the most field goals in the league this year with 37. Also consider that the Ravens boast one of the stingiest red zone defense’s in the league, surrendering a runner-up 42.86% red zone touchdown percentage in 2012. Lastly, thanks to the Ravens recent trend of choosing to kick off to start the game, oddsmakers believe that the 49ers are most likely to receive the ball first (prop is currently at-150, implying a 60% probability). With this in mind, here are a few other related props to consider: SF first score not a TD (+160), first score a 49ers FG (+344), Akers field goals made Over (-130).
Will a safety be scored?
Pick: No (-1000)
Reasoning: Who the heck wants to lay $1,000 to win $100? The answer is nobody, for the most part, and this is precisely why the price for ‘No’ on this prop presents value. This number is implying that the probability that a safety occurs is roughly 10%. The historical data, however, suggests a different story. Since 2000 (sample size of 3328 games), a safety has been scored in just 5.9% of games. Compare historical numbers with the current -1000 price, and we have a +EV wager. Gamblers love to bet these large money line numbers thanks to their attractive payouts, especially considering YES (+650) on this prop cashed just last year. I would not be surprised to see this price to continue to drop as Sunday approaches with large sums of money coming in on ‘Yes’ from the public.
Todd’s Take
Rice U17 Attempts (-150)
Pierce O7 Attempts (-135)
Torrey Smith U3.5 Receptions (-105)
Vernon Davis to score a TD: +170 or better (should be bare minimum in the market)
