Australian Open 2013
Written by Adam Chemerinsky (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings)
The first grand slam is about to start and for two weeks there will be plenty of value on the daily betting board. Much like The NCAA tournament where you have 30+ games to choose from in the opening round, be selective!
Without overloading you with paralysis by analysis, here are a few betting basics to get you through the open.
Chalk Talk: Even if you have never watched a tennis match you probably can figure out that backing Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer will be a winning proposition: Only problem is that you will find them in the opening week around –6000 (Djokovic is –6000 first round against Paul Henri Matheiu) and not realistic options for straight betting.
Match to watch: Kevin Anderson faces Juan Monaco (the 10 seed). Anderson comes in brimming with confidence after making the finals in Sydney. He possesses all the tools to beat Monaco thanks to a big forehand and strong service game. His goal in Melbourne will be to play first strike tennis against a clay courter who wants to play long rallies and prefers the slower surface. Monaco has an injured hand and has pulled out of his scheduled events so far in 2013 so we should have the makings of a live dog.
Betting Options
Moneyline: This is the best bet in tennis and for any novice handicapper I would suggest only playing the moneyline. Like any sport where heavy juice is the norm, best practice is to avoid large favorites. You will consistently find big matches at -600 (very common in high profile tennis matches) where you will you have to win 7 in a row without losing one to make money. First round moneyline plays that have my eye: (Fognini –135, Maxime Authom –130, Santiago Giraldo +120. My underdog special is Somdev Devvarman +215)
Set Betting: I like to use set betting early in tournaments when I think there are clear mismatches. Ideally I’ll look to bet a player to win in straight sets or –1.5 sets where available. Taking players to win in exactly 4 sets may have a big payout but is a total gamble and often times not worth the risk. For example if you believe a match will be decided in four or five sets, opt to bet the over total sets instead.
Totals: This brings us to the next option a bettor has in tennis, total games played in a match. The under at an alarming rate in last week’s warmup tournaments. However, I would not read that much into it. Look to back the over in matches where both players have a high rate of holding serve % and low return %. Taking the under in matches where both players are streaky and mentally weak (a habit of not fighting when falling behind) is never a bad option, for example First round the under is a good play with Goffin vs Verdasco
My first round best bets:
Donskoy –5
Steve Johnson +6.5
Fognini –135
