Divisional Revenge: Something Worth Considering
This weekend’s slate of divisional games presents three of four matchups where the two teams are meeting for a second time this season. With that, here is a powerful trend that favors the team that lost the regular season contest: Since 2002, when two teams are meeting for the second time (or even the third) that season in the playoffs, the team that lost the previous matchup is 44-26-1 (.629) ATS. Of course, trends are only as valuable as the rationale that supports them. This trend can be explained logically by understanding three angles:
- Motivation: The team that lost the regular season matchup may be the more motivated squad. The incentive for revenge is a very influential factor on the outcome in sports or any competition for that matter. At the same time, the team that was victorious earlier in the year may take its opponent lightly. The team still wants to win, but it may prepare with less vigor and not with enough focus. Any slight motivational edge in a league with such parity can result in a significant difference between the projected and actual final score of NFL games.
- Market Overreaction: We as humans are heavily influenced by what has happened most recently. This phenomenon, known as recency bias, captures the idea that the most recent events, patterns, and trends dominate our predictions of future outcomes. With public sentiment more prevalent than ever in this playoff market, bettors tend to overact to past results and expect them to continue into the future. This market overreaction diminishes the value on the team that won the regular season game and creates line value for the team that lost the first matchup
- Coaching Adjustments: Because the teams are meeting for the second time, coaches have more information to study, analyze, and game plan. The team that lost can better understand its shortcomings and make tactical adjustments to prevent them from happening again. The losing team will use the previous game as a learning experience and come into the rematch better prepared. On the other hand, the team that already found success will be less likely to make any changes and will probably enter the game with a similar strategy.
Now let’s take a quick look at the three games this trend applies to.
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Current Line: Broncos -9.5
Week 15 Line (converted for home field): Broncos -8.5
Key Stat: Broncos were +2 in turnover margin in this game. According to Pro-Football Reference, the two turnovers contributed to -17.22 expected points for the Ravens. Interestingly, the Broncos won this game by 17 points.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Current Line: Patriots -9.5
Week 14 Line: Patriots -5.5
Key Stat: This was the fourth road game in five weeks for the Texans.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Current Line: 49ers -3(+110)
Week 1 Line (converted for home field): 49ers -1.5
Key Stat: The Packer defense surrendered 5.8 yards per rush attempt and 7.3 yards per pass attempt in this week one contest. Since, the Packers defense has significantly improved. On the year, it now allows just 4.5 yards/RA and 5.7 yards/PA (stats do not include last week’s dominance over Minnesota).
