Anatomy of a Champion
32,882 plays, 256 games, and 17 weeks later, the field to determine the 2013 Super Bowl Champion has been dwindled down to 12 teams. The past four months of NFL action has produced a sample size of data that, when analyzed appropriately, can provide a wealth of information and go a long way in evaluating the strength and abilities of the remaining teams vying for a championship.
An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations. Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams. In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under.
- Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20: The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed). A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt. In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20.
- Positive Turnover Margin: This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed. The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games. In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU and 154-48-3 (.762) ATS.
- Positive Sack Differential: This statistic is the difference between a team’s total sacks on defense and sacks allowed on offense. The number helps to quantify the ability of the offensive line to protect the quarterback and the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback. Sacks, which result in the rare scenario where a team gains negative yardage on a play, can change the complexion of drives and ultimately have a significant effect on the final score.
|
Team |
Pass Eff. |
TO Margin |
Sack Diff. |
| 2011 Giants |
1.20 |
7 |
17 |
| 2010 Packers |
1.31 |
10 |
9 |
| 2009 Saints |
1.24 |
11 |
15 |
| 2008 Steelers |
1.37 |
4 |
2 |
Now let’s take a look at the 12 team playoff field and see how the teams performed under these measures…
|
Team |
Pass Eff. |
TO Margin |
Sack Diff. |
SB Odds |
| Broncos |
1.42 |
-1 |
31 |
5-2 |
| Patriots |
1.01 |
25 |
10 |
5-2 |
| 49ers |
1.30 |
9 |
-3 |
9-2 |
| Falcons |
1.04 |
13 |
1 |
6-1 |
| Packers |
1.16 |
7 |
-4 |
9-1 |
| Seahawks |
1.28 |
13 |
3 |
9-1 |
| Texans |
1.14 |
12 |
16 |
20-1 |
| Redskins |
1.06 |
17 |
-1 |
25-1 |
| Ravens |
1.03 |
9 |
-1 |
25-1 |
| Bengals |
1.09 |
4 |
5 |
50-1 |
| Vikings |
0.88 |
-1 |
12 |
80-1 |
| Colts |
0.93 |
-12 |
-9 |
100-1 |
Notice that the Seattle Seahawks are the only team that fit these three statistical parameters. Having to win three straight road playoff games with a rookie quarterback is certainly no easy task, but the Seahawks do fit the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion. While finishing the year on a five game win streak may have diminished some of the investment value in the Seahawks, the success of Pete Carroll’s squad in these three key performance measures should not be ignored.
Lastly, the Denver Broncos were dominant this season in the pass efficiency ratio and sack differential, yet, their turnover margin finished below zero. Looking at the turnover data more closely, however, can reveal a more telling story. The Broncos forced 16 interceptions and surrendered just 11 picks but experienced a negative margin in fumbles. This is largely due to the fact that they had a fumble recovery percentage of just 35.5% (28th in the NFL). All in all, turnovers via interceptions are far more predictive than turnovers via fumbles. Couple this with the Broncos dominance in the other two statistical categories, and I have a great deal of confidence in the team’s Super Bowl prospects.
