Banking on Bowling
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Beef ‘O’ Brady’s: Ball State vs. Central Florida (St. Petersburg, FL; Fri., Dec. 21, 7:30pm)
The game: According to the Mayans, this is college football’s swan song: two teams that only the junkies know a thing about, that combined for seven losses, in about as soulless a venue as one could conceive. Thing is, this could actually be a decent game.
After an early season blowout loss at Clemson, Ball State righted the ship and rattled of victories in eight of its next 10, rushing for at least 165 yards (behind Jahwan Edwards –1,321 yards and 14 TDs, with a 6.0 average) in each of those wins. The two occasions on which they failed to eclipse this mark coincided with their two conference losses, by two and 12 points, respectively, at Kent State and at home to Northern Illinois, hardly shameful, as those teams were a combined 16-0 in MAC play. The biggest concern facing BSU today is their qb and his recently broken ankle. While probable, we have to wonder how mobile and effective Keith Wenning will be in the pocket when under duress.
Central Florida, meanwhile, winners of eight of its first 10 – the two losses came by combined 10 points at Ohio State and at home to Missouri – is led by a 1,000-yard back of its own, Latavius Murray, who also had 14 TDs and gained 1,035 yards on the ground at a 5.8-per-carry clip. However, the Knights are coming off a pair of crushing defeats to Tulsa (23-21 in conference, 33-27 in the C-USA title game), which, despite the early season moral victories, revealed that UCF owed its hot start as much to a marshmallow schedule (Akron, FIU, Southern Mississippi, Memphis, SMU, UTEP, UAB – OMG!) as to gridiron prowess.
The pick: Both of these teams are capable on the ground and each boasts an efficient, if unspectacular, passing attack. That said, it is somewhat unconscionable that Central Florida is laying more than a touchdown given recent letdowns, the flimsiness of their resume and a +11 turnover margin racked up largely against subpar opposition. Ball State amassed a better record in a stronger conference and is frankly better than UCF at the stuff UCF is good at. Gimme the Cardinals and the points.
R+L Carriers New Orleans: East Carolina vs. UL Lafayette (New Orleans, LA; Sat., Dec. 22, 12pm)
The game: On paper, this is a matchup of unknown 8-4 teams, from unknown conferences. The facts paint a different picture. Despite a 7-1 Conference-USA record, it is nigh on impossible to find a real bright spot on East Carolina’s CV. I mean, I suppose keeping North Carolina within three touchdowns is something of a moral victory. Thumping Memphis 41-7 is cool, I guess. But really, not a ton to be impressed with here.
Lafayette, on the other hand, despite finding themselves on the business end of blowouts by Oklahoma State and a strong Arkansas State team, and dropping a tough mid-season tilt at North Texas, is wrapping up a solid campaign. The Ragin’ Cajuns smacked around the cupcakes on their schedule, easily handled in-state rival UL Monroe and were within an unbelievable blocked punt from taking Florida to overtime in the Swamp.
My Lean: Neither of these sides plays a ton of defense, though each has had its moments against the run, and both are capable and efficient through the air (60%+ completions and 260+ yards per game). The over (64.5) is the play here, as five of East Carolina’s last seven games have topped 60 points (52 and 48 in the others), and Lafayette has played just one game this season that fell short of 55 (a 40-0 win over Lamar), with three exceeding 75. Additionally, as long as this line remains under a touchdown, lay the points with Lafayette, who represent a step up in class for East Carolina and, with the game in New Orleans, will have a huge edge in crowd support.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Boise State vs. Washington (Las Vegas, NV; Sat., Dec. 22, 3:30pm)
The game: Despite losing nine (!!) starters on defense, an All-American left tackle, a 1,300-yard rusher currently gashing NFL defenses, its most prolific receiver and, oh, yes, the winningest quarterback in college football history, the Broncos of Boise State turned yet another near-perfect (two losses by six points total), if sub-standard (by their own standard) season in their Mountain West farewell tour. 2012 marks their 14th consecutive season – two in the Big West, nine in the WAC, and three in the MW – with 8+ victories, their 12th of 10+.
To say that the gents called upon by Chris Peterson to step in at virtually every vital position on the field acquitted themselves admirably is something of an understatement. Three times the Broncos allowed 200+ yards on the ground, but held the opposition under 60 yards four times and allowed just 3.6 yards per carry for the season. No opponent passed for more than 266 yards, with five failing to surpass 105 through the air. Matt Miller (60-683-5) led a trio of receivers that combined for 121 catches, 1,444 yards and 10 TDs, while sixth-year senior D.J. Harper managed 1,062 yards and 15 TDs on the ground. And junior Joe Southwick, though no Kellen Moore, quietly impressed, completing 66.6% of his passes for 2,496 yards and 17 TDs, behind an offensive line that allowed just nine sacks all season, and never more than two in a game.
Washington, meanwhile, despite an impressive four-game late-season stretch, is about as “meh” a bowl team as any power conference is likely to produce. The Huskies managed 337 yards of offense per game, with a per-rush average of just 3.6 yards. Defensively, they allowed six games of at least 199 rushing yards and five times allowed 400+ yards of offense. While an early season win over Stanford, plus wins over Oregon State at home and at Cal are solid, this team lost by 35+ at LSU, Oregon and Arizona, and wrapped up the regular season with a road loss at sadsack WaSU.
The Lean: Washington is a competent FBS team – a halfway decent Pac-12 team, even – but Boise State is clearly still Boise State, especially on D, and should have little difficulty disposing of the Huskies. Washington will struggle to rack up 250 yards of total offense, while getting gashed Harper on the other side of the ball. Look for Boise in a blowout.
