Hoops Marketwatch 12/3 – 12/9
BUY:
Kentucky (12-4, Samford, 12-8, Portland)
Another college hoops season begins and Kentucky are the same old Wildcats. They can never seem to cover an early season game anymore, win-less ATS to start this season as well. Coming off their first road game in which they were dominated by Notre Dame, they returned home to face Baylor who took advantage of Kentucky’s lack of finishing at the tin. Numerous times Kentucky had a tip-in missed or squandered bunny making it hard to watch. However, now welcome Samford and Portland to Lexington and I believe Kentucky will take out their frustrations on these small schools to get their kinks out before their match-up with Louisville at the end of the month.
Connecticut (12-4, NC State, 12-7, Harvard)
UConn is a team that is in limbo, they cannot go to the Tourney this year but still are showing plenty of fight early in the year. They beat Michigan State to open the season, later beat Wake Forest before losing to New Mexico, their only loss of the season. Unfortunately, the only game UConn covered was their opener, SU winners as an 8-point dog. They now face NC State at MSG who enter off a tough loss of their own against Michigan. I think that UConn will be able to hang with NC State and should be able to beat the Wolfpack. Harvard is next up after NC State for the Huskies and the Crimson are no stranger to early season struggles so far. They lost to a Vermont team that may be better than we all thought in a surprisingly high-scoring affair. Havard was also blown out at St. Joe’s but did get back in the win column over the weekend against Fordham. I feel that UConn will be able to body Harvard and get to their jump shooters going while owning the paint.
SELL:
Florida (12-5, @ Florida State)
The Gators have been piling on the points against their opponents all season except when they failed to cover 16 against Central Florida and won by 13, ho-hum. Now go on the road against the Seminoles who are coming off two embarrassing losses against Minnesota (which they seemed to not even show up for) and Mercer; a team where, well, let’s put it this way: There was no line for the game!! Florida State will play their rival extremely tough after being embarrassed and expect them to be grossly undervalued in this spot.
Illinois (12-4 Western Carolina, 12-8 @ Gonzaga)
Illinois has been cash all year except against Gardner-Webb who took them down to the final possession in a 1-point win for the Illini. Western Carolina just lost a heart breaker against Eastern Kentucky on Saturday where they literally led the entire game until the final minute and ended up losing by two. I believe Illinois may play down to their competition against Western Carolina and fully expect a tight game. After hosting the Catamounts, a road trip awaits to play a talented Gonzaga team. It should be a great game but I believe the home court will win this for the Zags and saddle Illinois with their first defeat.
PRO SPECIAL:
BUY:
Sacramento Kings (12-5, Raptors, 12-7, Magic, 12-8, @ Blazers)
Yes, I know, The Kings?!?! But hear me out, if you had to bet on them, doesn’t this week seem like the week to do just that? The four win Raptors at home, followed by five win Magic at home, and culminating with a road game against a seven win Blazers team. Kings are right in their wheelhouse here!! The Kings have not won on the road and face three terrible teams during this stretch. I believe at worst Kings go 2-1 ATS.
SELL:
Memphis Grizzlies (12-4, Suns, @ Hornets, 12-8 Hawks)
Grizzlies seem to have the perfect team. All the players get along; whatever the coach preaches, the players buy into it and their concept of team has worked so far in this young season. This is an interesting stretch of games for the Grizzlies this week. After banging with the Spurs Saturday and losing in overtime, they return home to face the Suns who should be able to run with them all night. I think the Suns will easily stay within the number and have a chance on beating them. After the Grizz are done running with Phoenix, they fly to New Orleans. Memphis should win this game, but do not be surprised if the Suns and Spurs games create residual fallout which leads to going back home to face the Hawks the very next day. A team that can somewhat match-up with them and may be able to keep up and bang. Time will tell, but I believe Grizzlies will struggle this week.
