Value in the Reds
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
My pre season EPL column suggested that only two clubs are capable of winning this seasons EPL crown; Manchester City and Manchester United. Twelve matches into the campaign, just under a third of the total games to be played, those two teams sit aloft at the top of the table. The troubling thing for any team wanting to challenge is that both teams have showed weaknesses. Despite the obvious flaws within both sets of players so far, no other side has managed to keep pace with them.
I advised at the beginning of the season that backing both sides blindly should provide a minimum of a 12.5% profit if you were prepared to tie your funds up for nine months. That calculation was with a futures price of Manchester City +125 and Manchester United +325. So, where are we now price wise and what should bettors do at present whether they hold a futures ticket or are yet to enter this market. Existing ticket holders may opt to do nothing but new entrants to this particular market may see some short term value with what I detail below.
The period between late November and New Years Day is always a hectic
time for professional footballers. In the 38 days between 25th
November and 1st January both teams play ten games in a period that
will define their seasons. I have listed below those fixtures against
each other as the schedule for both teams throws up some potential
short term value.
Manchester City Manchester United
A Chelsea H QPR
A Wigan H West Ham
H Everton A Reading
A Dortmund (UCL) H Cluj UCL
H Man Utd A Man City
A Newcastle H Sunderland
H Reading A Swansea
A Sunderland H Newcastle
A Norwich H West Brom
The next three games should see United go undefeated and more than likely pick up a full quota of points. City have three games where they could struggle. They travel to Chelsea this Sunday following the controversial removal of coach Di Matteo. Despite the move being universally laughed at, it should at least get a short term reaction from the Chelsea players eager to impress new coach Benitez. They then travel to Wigan who have always played them tough before hosting Everton. The potential is there for a three or four point swing in United’s favour and it is unlikely heading into the match up of the two teams in December that the gap has increased in City’s favour. The schedule makers have also sent City on the road to Germany in the Champions League in the week of the big game. Mancini will be able to rest many of his starters for that pointless game for them, as they cannot qualify, but they will have to travel due to the squad limits imposed on clubs. In contrast United have a home fixture that midweek and their roster will have a full week of preparation at home ready for the showdown at the Etihad Stadium. Both teams play Newcastle and Sunderland in the near future and whilst United face them in the comfort of their home ground, City are on the road for both fixtures.
My calculations have United gaining at least three points on their neighbours, exclusive of the sides’ meeting, in these fixtures. If
United avoid defeat in that December match up they will head the table as we enter 2013. Sir Alex is a master of getting his team to perform in the second half of the season so the current price on United may look a steal in a few weeks time.
