EPL Trend Game
By James Kempton (follow him on twitter @UKBettingpro)
When I was a more inexperienced bettor I dismissed trend analysis as a pointless research exercise. Who cares that in 2007 Aston Villa drew away to Manchester United; I mean how is that relevant in 2012? Maybe it was the countless bad beats or maybe it was myself trudging around nightclubs at 1:55am looking for a willing playmate that brought me to this conclusion; Sports teams, just like human beings, trend towards repeating past failures and successes.
We are only ten games into the new EPL season but already noticeable trends are emerging. I feel we have a big enough sample size, just over a quarter of the way through the season, to begin to firm up our opinions on teams. Styles of play are firmly ingrained into the teams fabrics so the attacking teams who produce goals should have offense a plenty in their games to come. Those teams that make defending a priority over attacking flare should continue to partake in boring defensive struggles.
Traditionally the goal line for EPL games is set at the 2.5 mark. The odds tended to be lower for the overs bet to be landed but there were minimal lines where the prospect of a push came into play as rarely was the line set at 3 goals. As the game has become more offensive, this line has ticked upwards with many lines now set at a flat three goals. Rather than fear the push, as bettors we should look to use this concept as our friend. This season in the EPL the third goal in the game is often just the start of the action! Below are listed some early season goal trends that I sense will continue, at least into the medium term.
- Averaging on or over 3 goals: Chelsea, Man Utd, Everton, Spurs, Fulham, Southampton and Reading
- Averaging under 2.5 goals: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Stoke, Sunderland and West Ham
The teams that average on or over 3 goals predominantly are polar opposites in terms of league position. Particular games to pay attention to are when the low scoring teams entertain sides in the middle to lower regions of the table since these will more than likely be tight affairs where points are hard won. One stand out feature from these statistics is the apparent inability of the stronger teams to keep a clean sheet. In fact the two Manchester giants have managed to shut out the opposition only four times in their combined 20 fixtures. For City, much can be attributed to their changing styles of defense between Champions League and EPL games. However, for United the problems are deep rooted in injuries and aging defensive players not able to perform at their previous high levels.
Detailed below are some bullet point thoughts that can also be thrown into the mix before placing wagers over the next few weeks :
- Southampton in their away games have seen 5, 7, 4, 5 and 2 goals and have scored themselves in 4 of those 5 games. They have failed to cover+1.5 line in 5 of their 10 games.
- Arsenal have seen only two of their away games go over the 2.5 line. This seems unheard of given the attacking philosophy they have always played with, especially away from home on the counter attack. The appointment of Steve Bould to Assistant Manager has led them to concentrate more on eradicating their past defensive frailties to the detriment of their forward play. In recent years it would have been unheard of for their opening 10 games yielding just 23 tallies.
- After just five games only Man City and Chelsea are unbeaten away from home. Given the strength of the top sides this is an incredible statistic showing how well teams do prepare for each gam. It also sends a warning to bettors keen on supporting away sides in EPL games that home field definitely counts.
- Sunderland have seen 7 of 9 games cash an under 2.5 goals ticket. All 4 home fixtures for the Mackems have gone under. Although they have no big name defenders they are a very well organised defensive unit. Any goals Sunderland concede come from good attacking flair rather than sloppy defensive play. This does come at a cost to their offence though as they concentrate on defense first.
- Chelsea has covered -1.5 line in 5 of their 10 games while Man Utd have covered -1.5 line just 3 of 10 games
- Stoke under 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 (4-1 both home and away). They are a resolute side whose strong record at home against the bigger EPL teams should always be respected.
Have a great weekend all, good luck and if you have any EPL questions please do not hesitate to hit me up on Twitter.
