Tackling the Totals Market
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
It’s human nature to root for things to happen rather than for them not to happen. Sports bettors aren’t immune to this phenomenon which is why there’s always a reluctance for them to neglect betting unders in any sport. The EPL goal lines are no different as they are always weighted slightly in favour of the overs. With the abundance of goals so far this season the goal line for many games has been adjusted to a full three goals as opposed to the traditional 2.5 mark. There is an upward trend towards more offense than in previous campaigns with an average of 2.81 goals per game. So far this season, six games in, the average stands at 2.9 goals per game and thus the line makers continue to adjust lines up and squeeze the value out of the overs. This weeks slate of games sees nearly half the totals at 3 meaning any time you see a line set at 2.5 goals, the line should be examined for any potential value opportunities. In this age of a free scoring EPL normally this would be slanted towards the over but this is not always the case. In fact, of the three games with a 2.5 goal line that interest me this week, two are to the under and just one to the over.
Everton travels to Wigan with the Toffemen flying high in the league tables and genuine hopes of pushing for a Champions League spot. David Moyes’ side have an excellent record at Wigan and are unbeaten in the last seven meetings between the two sides. Only one of seven meetings on Wigan soil has seen the over 2.5 goals cash. Nothing I have seen so far this season suggests Wigan are capable of causing the resolute Everton back line too many problems. With Everton appearing to have Wigan’s number it seems that Everton will control this game from the start. The style that the Blues adopt on their travels should ensure a tight game with the chances for the home side in front of goal restricted. Take the under here and root for the game to be played primarily through the midfield.
The next game sees us move on to Everton’s neighbours and fierce rivals Liverpool as they entertain Stoke at Anfield. Liverpool will steam roll Stoke this Sunday. Well they must, afterall they’re Liverpool; one of the biggest clubs in the world and Stoke are….well Stoke! It’s this kind of crazy logic that continues to weigh down Liverpool and give their supporters unhealthy aspirations. Of the last eight meetings between the sides the over 2.5 goals has cashed just once and this is the kind of road environment Stoke can thrive in if they paly their style. Their goal is to sit back and attempt to soak up the relentless pressure that Liverpool will put on them. Pressure does not always mean chances will be created though and despite scoring five last week at Norwich, those goals won’t carry into this week. The home crowd will become restless and nervous if an early goal isn’t scored forcing Liverpool to play even tighter. Stoke is 7-2 in favour of the unders in their last nine away games in the EPL. Liverpool will probably win the game but they cannot be trusted at home just yet to become a free scoring side. Take the value with the under 2.5 goal line.
So after two games where we’re stuck rooting for boredom and a lack of goalmouth action, we move to a game I sense will be full of excitement. Manchester United travel to Newcastle on Sunday looking to exercise the demons from their 3-0 loss there last season. If United are to win, they will more than likely have to score at least twice as they have looked decidedly uncomfortable when defending this season. With just one clean sheet in their six EPL games so far and with five of those going over 2.5 goals we should see plenty of chances created this Sunday. Newcastle has an abundance of attacking threats to test the fragile United back line with their strikers Ba and Cisse particulary dangerous forward men. Not to be outdone, United will be aided by the return of Wayne Rooney and counter with a powerful attacking unit of their own. With veteran Paul Scholes back to his best providing the ammunition for Rooney and Robin Van Persie, expect the Reds to have success and put this game over the total of 2.5.
