Ryder Cup Preview
Capping the Cup
This week, the attention of the golf world descends upon Medinah Country Club outside Chicago for the Ryder Cup. Contested every two years, the Ryder Cup is the most iconic team event in what is otherwise a wholly individual sport. Although the U.S. dominated the event’s early years, Team Europe has now won four of the last five Cups and enter as the defending champions, having won the 2010 matches in Wales by a single point. Here are some keys to keep in mind as you look to place your golf bets this weekend:
Format
Before heading to the window, it’s important to understand how this particular event is set up. Two teams of 12 golfers will go toe to toe this week at Medinah across three days; 28 matches will be contested, with one point for a win and a half point for a draw. The first team to 14.5 points wins the Cup; in the event of a 14-14 tie, Europe keeps the trophy as defending champions. Friday and Saturday will include both a morning and afternoon session in which two players from each team pair up across four matches; this means that for each session during the first two days, both teams will have 4 of their 12 players sitting on the sidelines. Only on Sunday, during the singles matches, will all 12 players from each team tee off during the same session.
Both morning sessions will feature Foursome matches, commonly known as alternate shot. As the name implies, in these matches teammates play a single ball on each hole and simply alternate who hits each shot until the hole is completed. With less margin for error, this format tends to favor the more consistent ball-strikers, as a single errant shot can doom the hole for a team. In the afternoon, matches will be contested in Fourball format, also known as best ball. Here both players from each team play their own ball for the entire hole, and each team records the lower of their two scores. Catering to more of the high-risk elements of match play, this format tends to favor aggressive players as more holes are won with birdies than lost with bogeys.
Home Course Advantage
While the golf course itself is typically a neutral element during a tournament, Medinah is anything but neutral this week. U.S. team captain Davis Love III has worked hand-in-hand with the PGA of America and the course superintendent for nearly four years to set up the course in a style that will best suit the American team. Greens have been rebuilt, over 1,000 trees have been removed and the rough has been cut low in an effort to aid some of the long-hitting American team members like Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson. So while the boisterous crowds will provide a boost to the Americans, so too should a little bit extra of extra local knowledge as well as a customized course setup.
Intangibles
Moreso than any other event in golf, intangibles play a huge role in determining the outcome of the Ryder Cup. Both sides this week describe keys to winning in flowery, loosely-defined terms like creating and maintaining momentum, cultivating a sense of camaraderie, and keying in on the body language and attitude of teammates. For the U.S. squad, the greatest intangible may be the support of the rowdy Chicago crowds. With four Ryder Cup rookies on the team (compared to only one for the Europeans), the Americans will look to use the crowd support this weekend to help stabilize the nerves of the younger team members and spark rallies all across the golf course. For the Euros, the biggest intangible comes from captain Jose Maria Olazabal. Olazabal has been at the center of some of the biggest Ryder Cup moments of the last quarter century – controversially dancing on the green at Muirfield after a 1987 European win, arguing with Paul Azinger over cheating allegations during a 1991 match at Kiawah Island, and standing on the green at Brookline as Justin Leonard sank his famous 50-foot putt to seal an American win in 1999. He teamed successfully across several Ryder Cups with fellow Spaniard Seve Ballesteros, who passed away last year; the memory of Ballesteros’ fiery passion is sure to provide motivation to the European squad this week.
Best Bets
There will be no shortage of prop bets this week tied to the action at Medinah. One player to keep an eye on, perhaps for the “Top Rookie” prop, is Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker enters as one of the hottest players on Tour, having just won the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup on Sunday and leads the Tour in strokes gained putting. A hot putter is in high demand in match play, and as a result Snedeker may have more opportunities to play than his other rookie counterparts.
For “Top Overall Scorer,” Luke Donald will certainly merit consideration. The top-ranked player in the world only a few months ago, Donald’s sterling Ryder Cup record is highlighted by a 6-0-0 mark in Foursomes play and he should participate in at least four sessions this weekend. Additionally, Donald went to college at Northwestern and still resides in nearby Evanston, which should help him feel more at home in front of the Chicago crowds and serve as extra personal motivation to perform well. If betting session winners for early play, I would look to back the Europeans at plus-money in both the Foursome and Fourball sessions, hoping for a profitable split; when combining Friday and Saturday sessions, Team Europe has had the edge in both the Foursome and Fourball segments in seven of the last 10 Ryder Cups dating back to 1991.
Prediction
Although this is one of the best American squads on paper in a long time, I see these matches going either way and am inclined to grab the European squad at plus-money for what I see as a coin-flip situation. The motivational edge provided by a fiery competitor like Olazabal is a significant one, as seen in 2008 when another passionate player, Paul Azinger, captained the Americans to victory. The Europeans have the world’s top-ranked player in Rory McIlroy, and more importantly they have several players who play regularly in the States and will not be easily intimidated by their American counterparts. On the other side, the Americans will feel the brunt of the pressure and expectations this week as hosts. While the U.S. will have a decided edge with the crowd and a friendly course setup, American hopes will likely hinge either on the ability of veterans like Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk to out-perform mediocre personal records, or on one of the unproven rookies like Keegan Bradley or Jason Dufner to step up in the clutch. While both scenarios are certainly plausible, I expect the Europeans to amass a lead across the first two days of team play and hold on for a narrow victory. Europe 15-13.
Notable Individual Records
USA
Jim Furyk: 8-15-4 overall; 1-8-1 Fourball
Phil Mickelson: 11-17-6 overall; 5-8-2 Fourball
Tiger Woods: 13-14-2 overall; 4-1-1 Singles
Europe
Luke Donald: 8-2-1 overall; 6-0-0 Foursomes
Sergio Garcia: 14-6-4 overall; 8-0-1 Foursomes
Ian Poulter: 9-2-0 overall; 3-0-0 Singles
