Sunderland vs Liverpool: A betting preview
2 way line: Liverpool -.5, +115 Sunderland +.5, -135
The EPL returns to our screens this weekend following a short break for the ongoing World Cup 2014 qualifications. Of the many intriguing games offered this weekend, there is one that I believe presents bettors with opportunities to prosper. Sunderland hosts Liverpool in the late UK game on Saturday (kick off 12:30 eastern) broadcast live on Fox Soccer Channel with both sides looking to register their first win of the season.
Sunderland has played just two games, both on the road, drawing 0-0 at Arsenal and 2-2 at Swansea. Both results can be viewed as great road performances given the strength of Arsenal and the early season promise shown from Swansea. They should have played three games already but a freak thunderstorm flooded their ‘Stadium of Light’ field and forced the cancellation of their home opener with Reading. This will be the first opportunity of the season for the frenzied home support of the ‘Mackem Faithful’ to show their love for their side. Liverpool’s early season results are less than impressive, losing 3-0 on the road at West Brom, drawing 2-2 at home to Man City, and then dropping a 2-0 decision at home to Arsenal.
Brendan Rodgers is an extremely focused manager who has a clear goal in mind for the style of play his teams need to adopt. Early performances show that there is a lot of work to be done in transforming this Liverpool side to a team capable of reflecting Rodgers’ favoured mould. The international break should have allowed time for some analysis of those early games, where silly mistakes have cost them dearly and I expect a tighter Liverpool defensive back line moving forward. Liverpool, under Rodgers, is very easy for opposing coaches to gameplan against because their style is centred upon winning the possesion battle and wearing their opponent down with ball retention.
Martin O’Neill is a passionate but realistic coach and understands that even at home his side will not be able to match Liverpool’s passing skills. O’Neill’s Sunderland side will play a far more direct style, favouring longer passes. However, recent additions to their roster have added more guile to their attacking threat. The home side will have paid close attention to set piece situations and will be a constant threat from corners and throw ins around the Liverpool penalty area. Liverpool use a zonal marking style of defense when defending such routines and this will not have been lost on O’Neill. Liverpool has shown weakness using this marking style and O’Neill may look to exploit it since I believe he leaves no stone unturned in looking to prevent Liverpool from obtaining all three points.
Looking at previous meetings of the sides here and we see some serious trends that should make you lean towards this being a low scoring affair. Each of the last three meetings of the teams have gone under 2.5 goals and a huge fifteen of the last nineteen has seen less than three goals scored when the two teams meet So, if the historic trend is to the under then who in this game should we look to for the attacking spark to land the over bet? Following Liverpool’s decision to send England striker Andy Carroll out on loan then a huge amount of burden falls on Uruguayan striker Louis Suarez to both create and take chances. This could be made more difficult though by the extensive Suarez has undertaken this week due to World Cup qualifying obligations with his native Uruguay. Suarez made the 14 hour flight back from Montivedeo to the UK, flying 7000 miles since Tuesday. This is not ideal preparation for a player whose teams striking fortunes seem to weigh heavily upon. For Sunderland going forward their hard working midfield offers plenty of steel, grit and determination but with a hint of creativity too. James McClean, Adam Johnson Stephane Sessegnon and Seb Larsson all have creative abilities but are known for their workmanlike approach to the game. They provide the chances to feed the dependable Steven Fletcher who has proven an instant hit since his £14m move from Wolves. Two goals on debut at Swansea began paying his large fee off immediately. Two predatory goals give us the indication that O’Neill will know exactly how to get the best out of this consistent EPL ‘Goal Getter’.
With the vocal support of the home crowd behind them, Sunderland has been excellent on home soil since O’Neill took over the managerial reins. Their 6-4-2 home record under his guidance includes only losses to Arsenal and Manchester United. In contrast Liverpool has won just three of their last ten games on the road. With a tight game in store, it would not surprise me if we saw a repeat of last season’s 1-0 home victory at the Stadium of Light. Whichever way you want to play this game, whether in the game markets or on the goal line, I believe you need to keep Sunderland on your side. They will put in a workmanlike performance, looking to stifle the Liverpool passing game. Look for a sloppy disjointed game where one mistake from Liverpool will lead to a Sunderland result.
