Giant Killers
Written by James Kempton (follow him @ukbettingpro for all your soccer needs)
Throughout history, statistics show teams are far stronger on their home turf than on the road it’s not exactly rocket science in sport. The common perception of home field advantage is that smaller teams travel into the ‘Lions Den’ of their larger rivals with the home crowd baying for blood as the reluctant visitors meekly surrender to the far superior clubs. However, these are highly paid professionals at the top of their craft and despite a league imbalance between top and bottom, surely a few cat calls and obscenities screamed at them shouldn’t take these elite footballers off their game…should it?
The tactics employed by road teams often differ markedly from their style of play at home. Obtaining a draw away from home is typically the main goal while an outright win serves as a huge bonus. If you needed proof that teams perform better at home than on the road, here it is: looking at just the last five seasons of EPL action (discounting now relegated sides), you see some startling numbers. Of the 69 qualifying seasons I reviewed, 65 out of 69 times teams racked up more points at home than on the highway.
The real test of home field advantage is comparing the home/road differential impact it can have on a teams’ performance. To assess accurately, the only real measure is dissecting the % of points a side gains from their home fixtures. Good teams with quality players tend to be good wherever they play and handle the pressures of playing on the road with professionalism. Below I’ve highlighted three of the smaller clubs who offer betting value at home given their huge home/road disparity
Since their promotion to the EPL five seasons ago, Stoke City has acquired a reputation as being a tough place to visit. The statistics certainly bear this out as they have the strongest home field advantage in the league. The noise and atmosphere generated by their crowd is incredible, literally serving as a twelfth man at times. Over their first 4 full seasons in the top flight, Stoke earns a massive 68.3% of their points on home soil. Including last Sunday’s result against Arsenal, Stoke has lost just twice in their last 13 games at home to the Big Six (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, both Manchester clubs and Tottenham). In each one of these games, Stoke were sizable dogs and on many occasions would have paid at least a +300 closing price. Last season Stoke went completely unblemished against those elite opponents at the Britannia Stadium and as a result should always be considered a viable home dog against the EPL powers.
Away from the standout leader in home field advantage, the next two teans are fellow mid table sides Fulham and Sunderland. Craven Cottage in leafy West London is hardly an intimidating venue for away sides to visit so why has Fulham been so strong at home? Fulham has built a squad full of technically adept players that are happy to play in tight enclosed spaces. Times change and players move on but the ethos of the club and style of play they adopt has remained the same (think Colorado Rockies in major league baseball). This season they appear to offer more of the same and in each of their last four seasons they have earned over 30 points on home turf. It’s definitely worth noting that they perform exceptionally well when hosting teams of a similar standing in their own building.
The third club worth including on this list is Sunderland: 65.9% of their points are obtained at the Stadium of Light where the noisy ‘Mackem’ faithful lift the performance of their beloved red and white striped shirts. Sunderland fans want their team to represent their towns values of hard work and dependability. As long as their players show required levels of effort on the pitch, the fans will raise the roof to help them win. Under new manager Martin O’Neill Sunderland will continue to be a difficult out at home. O’Neill always gets his teams up for a battle, especially against the big guns of the EPL and any game in which they are listed as home dogs warrants consideration from bettors.
The flip side to the above examples occurs when these sides take their show on the road. On certain occasions managers of lower placed teams will target future games to rest starters for their visits to the Manchester clubs or Arsenal. Two seasons ago Wolves manager Mick McCarthy was vilified for making wholesale changes, replacing his entire outfield ten for the trip to Old Trafford. This was done well ahead of time to bolster there chances against sides in their same competitive tier. When teams do this and ‘throw’ their away games it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If the smaller clubs never play their best possible eleven away against the big clubs, how will they ever beat them?
I have to qualify everything stated above though with a warning: This season will put our well tested theories to the test. New EPL regulations stipulate every pitch must be of equal size so it will be interesting to see how the smaller sides, such as Fulham and Stoke, cope with these changes. I am not convinced it will have a massive impact on such compelling home field trends. You cannot completely discount the changes though so just bear that in mind before you head to the counter looking to gain the home field advantage.
