US Open Betting Preview
by Adam Chemerinsky (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings )
Monday marks the start of tennis’ final Grand Slam for 2012. Betting tennis offers value throughout the year and the US OPEN is no different. Tackling the final major requires knowing the matchups, tendencies, and styles of play along with the unique features that differentiate play in Flushing Meadows from other venues.
KNOW THE SURFACE: When looking at a match-up, it’s obviously important to know the head to head records between players but make sure to dig deeper and uncover how they fare against one another on North American hardcourt. If two players have not played since 2006 and their matchup was on clay back then, I’d put zero stock in that result predicting future outcomes. Keep in mind when a player hasn’t competed all summer since Wimbledon, he probably can’t be trusted on hard courts. My favorite website to utilize for tennis match history is matchstat.com for those looking to uncover hidden gems.
KNOW THE CONDITIONS: The US OPEN’s most unique (and notorious) feature to combat is mother nature. The wind needs to be checked and confirmed before each wager you place. Jim Courier, former player and now commentator, has said “I can tell you as a player that the wind in Ashe is the most inconsistent wind of the four major stadiums.”
Four things to know about the wind and how it affects the match:
1) The wind plays a bigger factor in larger stadiums like Arther Ashe then it does on the outer courts. Always do your homework to know which court will play host to each match.
2) In windy conditions, try to avoid betting players with high ball tosses (i.e Sharapova, Berdych.)
3) Favor the more experienced player in the wind. (this holds especially true for those inclined to bet the women’s draw)
4) Players that don’t “go for it” as much and have a safer game tend to play better in wind. Feel more comfortable backing the Spaniards and other clay courters in the wind.
KNOW HOW TIME OF DAY IMPACTS THE MATCH (Night vs Day): The two major changes from the day session to the night session are the heat and the atmosphere. From a betting standpoint, there are only a few players who really feed off the night crowd and subsequently should be capped accordingly when playing under the lights. The big players to include on this list are Federer, Tsonga, Hewitt, and Roddick.
KNOW A PLAYER’s RECENT FORM: Flat out the most important factor when looking at any tournament. This year is a bit different because of how the Olympics altered every player’s normal preparation schedule. Players will enter more fatigued than usual and knowing the amount of matches an individual can be important, especially in the WTA draw. As opposed to past seasons, a players’ results at Indian Wells and Miami should hold more bearing than how they performed in Cincinnati.
Players to bet early:
Tomic: expect early value when he takes on native son Andy Roddick.
Granollers: always undervalued. For example, last week he was an underdog vs Harrison and only -130 paired up against a player outside the top 100. He poses no threat to the top 10 players but performs remarkably well against players in his own tier.
Players to avoid:
Benoit Paire: looked awful this summer and despite being favored in his matches has lost all 3
Tomas Berdych: How will he handle what some have called the “choke of the century” in a non major final? He’s just 3-5 since the French Open and has not won back to back matches.
Agnieszka Radwanska: There is not a top player on the women’s draw currently playing worse tennis.
My favorite first round picks: If your book offers players to win in straight sets in the early rounds my suggestions include Anna Tatishvili and Sofia Arvidsson to win in straight sets.
Money line plays: Ivo Karlovic -125, Robin Haase +135, Tim Smyzek +125, Petzcher +104, Alejandro Falla +105, Granollers -6 games
Upset Alert: Jack Sock +475 over Florian Mayer (but taking sock +7.5 games is wiser)
