Previewing the Premiership
EPL Insider James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
This forthcoming EPL season presents us with great opportunities to make some cash. Over the course of the season we’ll provide weekly installments highlighting some of the league’s biggest games and best money making opportunities. However, for now we’ll concentrate on the futures market for the EPL title to try and pinpoint where the preseason value lies if in fact there is some to be had.
If I was to offer you a savings rate in a bank that yielded an interest rate of over 100% you may literally bite my hand off! Yet when bettors are presented with an opportunity to cash a ticket at an extended future date they always appear reluctant. Unlike American sport where the concept of parity makes long term investors wary, European soccer is not nearly as risky. In the majority of leagues you can discount 80% of the teams before the first whistle is sounded. In reality the EPL title is already only a four horse race and the two main contenders for the EPL crown can both be backed at a price over even money. A blind equal stake wager on both Man City (+125) and Man United (+325) to win the EPL will return, if one of them becomes champion, at least a 12.5% return for the year (maybe even more depending on odds offered at your house of choice).
The conundrum that faces all of us as bettors though is asset allocation. Few, if any, have a bottomless betting bank so the thought of apportioning a percentage of our betting bank aside for nine months can be off putting. If your bet was to be $100, rather than tie it up for a nine month period the bettors psychology is to make that $100 grow during the 9 month span. With most professional bettors making between 7-11% ROI the kind of value I outline above really should be considered a great return on the capital invested.
Thirty eight games is a lot of football and it is hard to build a case for any other side to realistically challenge the dominance of the Manchester duo. Beyond what my eyes tell me, the statistics also appear to back up that assertion. In the 20 years of the EPL, Man United has only finished out of the top two on three occasions and not out of the top two in the last seven campaigns. For City, after winning the EPL defending champions have only finished out of the top two on three of nineteen seasons and not once in the last eight.
Who else can sustain a challenge for the title over the full duration of the season? The only other teams I sense who may be able to push the top two are Arsenal and Chelsea. The two London giants can be backed at +900 and +500 respectively. However, both sides have brought in a number of new players and a lot depends on how they gel with the existing roster. To integrate players immediately into the EPL style of play from abroad is a very difficult balancing act than the casual fan would have you believe. This is made harder when you need to average around 2.25 points per game over the course of the season to be in contention for the title. Early signs do not offer much promise though for either of the two clubs. Chelsea, despite taking the lead in the pre season warm up that is the Charity Shield, succumbed to Man City 3-2. The aftermath of the game saw many fans swarm to Twitter to vent their frustration at coach Di Matteo. The Champions League triumph may have masked the cracks for the Blues and should they start poorly Di Matteo will be under immediate pressure. Arsenal has a very tough start on the road where their fragility away from their own soil will be tested in full. My own projections have Arsenal at least five points adrift of the top of the table after just eight games. They are a side that lives on
confidence and such strife early in the season will test their resolve.
I believe too much depends on a seamless transition for the two above mentioned clubs whilst City and United remain almost unchanged. City has resisted temptation to spend big money in the summer and given their vast resources, this is an admirable decision. United has also had a relatively quiet summer of transfer dealings but they may land the prize purchase if they can tempt Robin Van Persie away from Arsenal. Such a signing may just tilt the balance of power in their favour.
If you are disciplined enough to accept a minimum of a 12.5% profit on theseason, then follow the above suggestions. Should you wish to get more “value” for your $ then you will have to figure out the title winners from the information available. The value is clearly with United but I sense City will not give the title up easily and may be even stronger based on last year’s experience. As the season fluctuates, so do the odds available at the counter. Depending on your bankroll keep a close eye on the upcoming schedules and you may end up with a collection of tickets, each one offering short term value that can be traded out of at a later date.
Whatever betting decisions you decide on for this EPL season I can assure you one thing; it will be a long season. There will be plenty of opportunities available over the next nine months so if you can’t decide on what to back in the futures markets don’t worry. Afterall there’s always next week and the next week and the next week………….
