PGA Championship
Written by the Golf Guru (follow him on twitter @fullmarx12)
This week, the strongest field in golf will converge along the beaches of South Carolina to contest the PGA Championship, the year’s fourth and final major. The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island will serve as host, a small strip of land near Charleston once nearly decimated by Hurricane Hugo in 1989, re-built for its debut during the 1991 Ryder Cup that became known as the “War on the Shore,” and today dubbed by Golf Digest as “America’s Toughest Golf Course.”
Course Overview
The Ocean Course will provide a stern test for the players this week as bogeys and the dreaded “other” will abound. The PGA of America will be able to lengthen the course out past 7,600 yards but on a track with 10 holes running alongside the Atlantic Ocean, the number one defense will always be the wind. Although the forecasts this week call for calm-to-moderate conditions, players will have to factor in the wind on every shot. The geography of the course is such that there is no prevailing wind direction; a hole can switch from downwind to into-the-wind from one day to the next, or even within a matter of hours. As is often the case with majors, this will favor solid ballstrikers – those with a low, consistent ball flight – as well as players who can comfortably shape their shots in both directions. Players who are overly reliant on a single shot shape will struggle on cross-wind holes and those with a higher ball flight will too often see their shots at the mercy of the elements. Additionally, in a ruling that may take some getting used to for both players and viewers, the PGA has instituted a “no bunkers” policy this week. All sand – even what appear to be conventional bunkers – will be deemed “sandy waste areas,” which means players will be able to ground their club, remove loose impediments and even take practice swings to test out the sand depth. This may help a player like Graeme McDowell, whose otherwise solid stats and results are somewhat blemished by poor bunker play (currently 186th on Tour in sand save percentage).
Contenders and Sleepers
While traditionally sporting the strongest field of the year (this week each of the top 103 players in the world rankings are in the field), the PGA has also become known for surprise winners. Rich Beem, Shaun Micheel and Y.E. Yang have all shocked fields by winning this event in the last decade, and just last year Keegan Bradley came to the Atlanta Athletic Club as a 125-1 longshot playing in his first major championship. Among those with shorter odds, I expect Jason Dufner to play well; he has four top-10 finishes in his last five starts, a chip on his shoulder from last year’s bittersweet playoff loss, and a stoic, unflappable disposition that will likely be an asset this week on the Ocean Course. Graeme McDowell is another player to watch having played in the final pairing on Sunday at both the U.S. and British Opens and possessing a low boring ball flight that will help battle windy conditions. Of those with longer odds, I like both Bo Van Pelt and David Toms, especially for top-10 props. Van Pelt leads the Tour (along with Matt Kuchar) with eight top-10 finishes and has been remarkably consistent this season. He went toe-to-toe with Tiger last month at the AT&T National and his stat line is impressive: third on Tour in the all-around ranking, 11th in total putting, and a 69.64 Sunday scoring average that shows he can play well when the pressure is on. Toms, winner of this event in 2001, seems to save his best for the season’s final major; he has made the cut here every year since 2003 and has five top-20 finishes in that span, including T-4 last year. He took a few weeks off after tweaking his back following a T-4 at the U.S. Open in June and promptly finished T-8 in Akron last week in his return. Toms embodies the type of player I think will do well this week – steady veteran, accurate off the tee and possessing a strong short game – and I expect him to do just that.
Tiger Factor
Handicapping any of golf’s majors must also take into account Mr. Woods. Now more than four years removed from his last major triumph, Tiger enters this week having carded back-to-back top-10 finishes for the first time since September 2009. A conservative game plan, including largely irons and three-woods off the tee, helped put him in position to win both the U.S. and British Opens, but he failed to close over the weekend. On a course with more par-4 holes measuring 494 or more (three) than 400 or less (two), how conservatively can Woods play off the tee? At some point, he will likely have to rely upon his driver, and it is at that point when things may get dicey. Additionally, Tiger is not exactly a card-carrying member of the Pete Dye fan club. In 18 starts as a professional on Dye-designed courses (15 at TPC Sawgrass, two at Whistling Straits and one at Harbour Town), Woods has exactly two top-five finishes and has won only once – the 2001 Players Championship, when he was by all accounts at the very top of his game. I’m not going out of my way to oppose him in matchups, but I do not think that this is an ideal setup for Woods to win major number 15.
Sunday Comebacks
If this season on Tour has taught us anything, it is the fact that no 54-hole lead is truly safe. This past Sunday, Keegan Bradley rallied past Jim Furyk for a victory at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and in so doing became the 11th different player to win on Tour this year after starting the final round at least four shots off the pace. That includes each of the last two majors where both Webb Simpson and Ernie Els were in the 25-1 neighborhood to win their respective events after three rounds. Even Bubba Watson was three shots behind the leader entering the last round at Augusta. Overall, only 10 players with a piece of the 54-hole lead have gone on to win through 33 Tour events in 2012. All of this is to suggest that on a course where double bogey will only be a wind gust away, many players will enter Sunday with a legitimate chance to win and value may be present in more than just the final pairing.
Best Bet
While the shifting winds will be discussed all week, they will likely not reach the levels seen at a gusty Ryder Cup 21 years ago. Instead the more important weather factor may be the rain – it has rained consistently early in the week and shows no sign of slowing over the first couple rounds. Last month’s British Open showed exactly what can happen to scores on a links-style course when 1) the winds are down, negating the course’s best defense and 2) the course is wetter than usual. Even at 7,600 yards, low scores should be out there if guys are able to play target golf this week, and on a “winning score o/u 282.5” prop I think under is the way to go (i.e. winning score is -6 or better). Last year the Atlanta Athletic Club was thought to be at the height of difficulty, yet both Keegan Bradley and Jason Dufner were able to play it in -8 for the week. While the U.S. Open is typically a battle against par, the PGA of America has traditionally preferred to see their biggest event won by players making birdies rather than by those avoiding bogeys and I think they will set the course up this week to that end. For perspective, TV analyst Ian Baker-Finch gave an interview Wednesday morning where he was asked for a score prediction; he pegged the winning score this week at -12 under par.
